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Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

Know You Can't Know

Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

Don McDonald

Investing, Education, Business, How To

4.5810 Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2026

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Markets may feel calm despite geopolitical noise, but uncertainty is the permanent condition of investing—and the price of admission for higher returns. Don and Tom unpack Jason Zweig’s reminder that investors hate uncertainty (tough), discuss the surge in speculation from leveraged ETFs to prediction markets, and explain why “play money” accounts should stay small. They field listener questions on building an investment policy statement, rebalancing without sabotaging returns, simplifying overly complex ETF portfolios, choosing international small-cap exposure, and setting up custodial accounts (with a nod to Roth IRAs for working teens). The core message: take only the risk you need, not the risk your inner con man wants. 0:00 The podcast that never ends; investors hate uncertainty 1:19 Jason Zweig revisits 2008 and the permanence of market uncertainty 3:16 Calm markets, speculative behavior, and the rise of prediction markets 6:00 “Play money” accounts and the danger of confusing gambling with investing 8:18 Take the risk you need—not the risk you want 9:05 Writing down how you feel during downturns 11:51 Listener question: Rebalancing and creating an Investment Policy Statement 17:09 25-year-old portfolio review: Too much complexity, wrong tilts 20:27 International small-cap choice: AVDV vs. AVDS 23:26 Custodial accounts for teens and the Roth IRA opportunity 26:10 RetireMeet 2026 promotion and event details Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Could AI help you do more of what you love?

0:03.1

Workday is the next-gen ERP powered by AI that actually knows your business.

0:08.4

We help you handle the have-to-dos so you can focus on the can't-wait-to-dos.

0:13.2

It's a new workday.

0:15.2

The perpetual podcasters are back.

0:18.5

Hello again.

0:19.5

Welcome to Talking Real Money, the podcast that never

0:23.7

is. We're like fast approaching 2,000 podcasts available for your listening pleasure. Wow. Wow.

0:31.7

It's perpetual. Hello everyone. I'm Don McDonald in my little Florida box. And Tom

0:37.1

Cock is in some weird little room in Bellevue,

0:41.4

Washington. We're here to help you manage money and understand it better and understand you

0:47.7

better. That's really a big, big, big part of what we do here is try to help you understand you better.

0:54.8

And one of the things we know about you, and we know this with a high degree of certainty,

1:02.1

is that you hate uncertainty.

1:06.4

That's why I said a high degree of certainty, because we want to be very confident in our

1:10.3

lack of confidence

1:11.1

or confidently unconfident or something like that. I don't know what I'm saying. Anyway, it's known

1:18.4

that we don't like uncertainty. That's why markets freak out when people start worrying about,

1:22.7

where's the dollar going, where's interest rate going, where bonds going, where, where's gold going, where's

1:28.5

crypto going?

1:29.6

And Jason Zweig recently wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal about that very subject.

1:35.3

Yeah, and he was recycling an article.

...

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