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The Kevin Sheehan Show

Kevin's Smell Test picks of the week

The Kevin Sheehan Show

Audacy

News, Sports

4.7696 Ratings

🗓️ 5 September 2025

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

9.5.25, Kevin Sheehan gives out his weekly smell test picks for College Football and NFL week one games.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Turn on my mic. That usually helps year 20 of the smell test. My first year doing it, I was doing a show with John Riggins and my friend Gary Braun. That was a long time ago. Out of the 19 seasons, 14 winning seasons, five losing seasons. Last year, pretty good year, one 12, 97, and 6. So 53.7%. That pays, yes, that's profitable.

0:31.2

52.6, anything north of that pays. Last week, really good start. Four and O over the weekend, overall, because I had two Thursday

0:41.2

night picks, five and one, week one. I had NC State, which was a loser. I had Cincinnati,

0:47.8

which was a winner, and then had two beautiful backdoor, late backdoor covers with Toledo and UTSA. UTSA was getting their ass kicked

0:58.2

by Texas A&M and they were down 42 to 17 getting 23 and a half and UTSA put in their backup

1:05.8

quarterback and started to run the clock out. And then for whatever reason, the coach changed

1:10.7

his mind and decided, no, let's go for a out. And then for whatever reason, the coach changed his mind and decided,

1:12.5

no, let's go for a score. And the guy threw a touchdown pass, threw a fourth down conversion,

1:17.5

and then a touchdown pass for a great backdoor cover. I had Florida State against Bama. They

1:22.2

won outright getting 14, and I had Miami on Sunday night getting three against Notre Dame,

1:27.0

and they won outright in that game.

1:29.8

So good start, 5 and 1. This is a long haul deal.

1:34.1

If you're not familiar with it, it's just a contrarian handicapping philosophy that seems to be popular now.

1:40.9

It wasn't 20 years ago.

1:43.5

Just try to find the sides where, you know, every dope friend of

1:46.6

yours is convinced that they've got the winner and that the odds makers have screwed up the

1:52.4

line and just go against those people. That's part of it. But as I've mentioned, over the years,

1:58.3

I do have and get a lot of information. It comes from warm tropical places offshore.

2:06.3

And really, this just comes down to the realization after many years that the house wins more than it loses.

2:11.7

And I'm not talking about just because they charge a fee. They charge the VIG on a loss.

2:17.5

No, it's when they need a side, it comes in more often than not.

2:21.7

Not always, but more often than not.

...

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