A massive lawsuit has been filed over the killing of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, and it's not for any of the reasons most people would expect.

It's because people were betting on the death of this man to the tune of $54 million and they did not get paid.

This all has to do with the prediction market emergence, Kalshi and Polly Market, and what people expect when they make wagers, technically not wagers, they're buying contracts on the outcome of a future event, which has presented us with very weird circumstances.

Notably, there is a wager that I, Tim Poole, will or will not appear at a

White House press briefing this year. And there are questions about whether or not I'm allowed to

say, and it just becomes very, very weird. Insider trading rules, regulations under the CFTC,

and it's resulting in a, well, weird future.

Because personally, I'm not completely opposed to the idea of prediction markets,

but there are circumstances arising around whether or not something is or is not insider trading.

Recently, a story came out about a potential insider who accurately predicted major moves by the U.S. military and profited to the tune of $100,000 in one month.

This individual is predicting that the U.S. will likely have boots on the ground in Iran, but we'll see how much of this is actual insider knowledge and how much of this is just speculation on a market

where you can sell your contract at any point for a profit. The story with Calci is actually

quite simple. Kamani was killed, and many people bet he would be out as supreme leader. But

Kalshi qualified this by saying death does not count as leaving office.

Therefore, if you bet he'd be out of office under the assumption that death meant leaving,

it doesn't count.

There's a problem with that logic because some people wagered he would not be out as

supreme leader.

And if the rule is in order to qualify for this bet as a yes or a no,

he must voluntarily or be removed from office, like actually say, I hereby resign, or have

someone come in and say, you are being removed. And if that condition is not met, then no is 100% and should pay out to those who bought that contract.

However, what ends up happening is Calci basically says we're going to freeze the market and pay everyone out based on the last traded prices, which is creating a whole lot of confusion.

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