Justifying Optimism
The Morgan Housel Podcast
Morgan Housel
4.9 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 30 October 2023
⏱️ 13 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
All optimistic beliefs can be dangerous because they’re so comforting, so easy to accept without asking further questions. Hope often masquerades as optimism when you think things will improve only because the alternative is too scary to contemplate.
Every optimist needs to justify exactly why they're optimistic. In this episode, I offer my own three reasons.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Something that I've always believed is that optimism makes you sound like a salesman, |
| 0:08.0 | but pessimism makes you sound like you're trying to help people. |
| 0:13.0 | And this really explains why pessimism is so much more prevalent in the news. |
| 0:18.0 | Pessimists sound smarter than optimists. |
| 0:21.0 | If you say the future is going to be bright, I know that stocks are going to go up, |
| 0:25.6 | I know we're going to get better, you sound aloof and detach from reality. |
| 0:30.8 | But if you say, recessions on the horizon, dollars are going to collapse, hyper-inflation right around the corner, |
| 0:37.0 | people sit up in their chair and pay attention to you. |
| 0:40.0 | It's always been like this. I think it always will be. |
| 0:43.0 | And the irony, of course, is that if you're a student of economic history, |
| 0:47.0 | you know that things get better for most people most of the time. |
| 0:51.0 | Not for everybody all the time, but most economic history shows that things get better for most people, most of the time, |
| 0:58.0 | and therefore you should be an optimist. |
| 1:00.0 | So there's this detachment between how prevalent and how exciting pessimism is, and how dumb you sound if you're an optimist, on one hand. |
| 1:10.0 | But then on the other hand, how of course if you look at history, you should be an optimist. |
| 1:15.0 | Because of that, I think it's really important to step back and say, okay, if you are an optimist, |
| 1:21.0 | and I am, I hope you are an optimist and I am I hope you are too then you need to explain why you need to |
| 1:27.8 | justify your optimism and that's what today's episode is all about. |
| 1:33.0 | How do you justify optimism? |
| 1:35.0 | Many years ago I watched this documentary, |
| 1:38.0 | is called How to Live Forever. |
| 1:40.0 | It asks a bunch of centenarians about their secrets to life. |
... |
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