July 25, 2022: This week, it really is the economy, stupid

The Playbook Podcast

POLITICO

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🗓️ 25 July 2022

⏱️ 12 minutes

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Summary

If there’s one thing the White House, economists and basically everyone who thinks about money can agree on, it’s that this is going to be a big week for economic news. — On Tuesday, we get new consumer confidence numbers, a measure which has fallen for two consecutive months. Last month’s report showed the Consumer Confidence Index at its lowest level since February 2021 and the Expectations Index — “consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions,” per the Conference Board — at its lowest level since 2013. — On Wednesday, the Fed will meet and make a decision on just how much to raise interest rates. After the most recent inflation numbers, most observers expect a hike of .75 percentage points. That would be the fourth rate increase this year. — On Thursday, the GDP numbers for the second quarter will drop, and economists expect they’ll show a decline of 1% to 2%. It would be the second straight quarter of decline — which is often seen as signaling a recession. And Playbook's Eugene Daniels chats with POLITICO White House Bureau Chief Jonathan Lemire about his newest book, "The Big Lie." Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Presented by Mehta.
0:02.6	Hey, good morning, playbookers. I'm Rogum Wendavalin. It's Monday.
0:06.3	Today's show, why you should expect a huge week for economic news. It's your Politico Playbook Daily Briefing.
0:15.0	Here are the top three storylines team Playbook is watching for this week. First up, a clearer picture of the economy.
0:21.7	Maybe.
0:22.7	If there's one thing the White House, economists, and basically everyone who thinks about money
0:26.2	can agree on, it's that this is going to be a huge week for economic news.
0:30.9	On Tuesday, we'll get new consumer confidence numbers, which have fallen for two consecutive
0:35.3	months.
0:36.2	Last month's report showed the Consumer Confidence
0:38.0	Index at its lowest level since February 2021. And the Expectations Index, that's the
0:43.9	consumer's short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, are at its lowest
0:48.8	level since 2013. On Wednesday, the Fed will meet and make a decision on just how much to raise
0:53.9	interest rates.
0:55.0	After the most recent inflation numbers, most observers are expecting a hike of 0.75 percentage points.
1:00.0	That would be the fourth rate increase this year.
1:03.0	Politico's economics reporter Victoria Guida has this to say in a story of this morning.
1:08.0	Quote, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell has vowed to follow the
1:11.2	data in deciding how high to crank up interest rates to crush the worst inflation surge in for
1:16.3	decades. But Powell and other Fed policymakers are making that crucial decision based on data that
1:21.9	lately has been so confusing and contradictory that it's hard for them to know where the economy
1:26.7	actually stands.
	...

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