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Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Judge the Judges: With Guests Daniel Kahneman, James Hutchinson & G.M. Pucilowski

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

Charles Schwab

Investing, Social Sciences, Behavioral Economics, Science, Society & Culture, Decision Making, Charles Schwab, Dan Heath, Business, Katy Milkman

4.71.5K Ratings

🗓️ 24 May 2021

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Many episodes of this podcast deal with cognitive biases that can hinder our decision-making abilities. In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at a different kind of error: how completely irrelevant information can negatively influence our judgments, making them varied and unpredictable. This variability of human judgment—or noise—is the topic of an upcoming book by Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman, with Cass Sunstein and Olivier Sibony. You’ll hear an interview with Kahneman later in the episode where he explains his preoccupation with the substantial and expensive effects of noise. He proposes ways to reduce the problem of noise for industries, businesses, and individuals who need to make more objective judgements. But first, we’ll dive into the world of wine judging. G.M. “Pooch” Pucilowski will take you on a guided tour of the California State Fair Commercial Wine Competition. You’ll hear about the criteria for judging different varietals—and the accompanying challenges that wine judges face as they swirl, sniff, and sip through dozens and sometimes hundreds of different wines. After years of coordinating and observing the judges, Pooch noticed a large amount of variability in the results. This may not be surprising, since taste is subjective. But after some tweaks to the process, he even began to notice that judges were inconsistent with themselves! Enter vintner and retired oceanographer Robert Hodgson. Pooch teamed up with Hodgson to devise a way to study and improve the consistency of wine judging and push for a more objective competition. The results were promising, but not without controversy. G.M. “Pooch” Pucilowski is a speaker, writer, wine judge, and educator. He runs wine appreciation classes through his University of Wine. You’ll also hear about the potential role of chemical analysis and artificial intelligence in improving the results of wine judging from James Hutchinson, formerly of the Royal Society of Chemistry and currently CEO of KiwiNet. And finally, Katy explores the potential of leveraging noise to produce better decisions by employing the wisdom of crowds—and even “the crowd within.”

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hi, Troysology listeners, it's Katie.

0:03.3

This is an encore presentation of an episode we first brought you back in March of 2020.

0:08.6

We're sharing it again to coincide with the release of the much-anticipated new book

0:12.5

by one of the episode guests.

0:15.2

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's book, Noise, a flawed human judgment written with Olivier

0:20.2

Ciboney and Cass R. Sunstein is out now, and we thought this would be a timely companion.

0:26.5

Hope you enjoy.

0:30.0

It's been two years since a devastating wildfire rolled through this valley town.

0:38.0

Many homeowners are still waiting on insurance settlements.

0:40.6

Lawyer Sam Barber is working on dozens of unresolved cases.

0:44.5

It's the inconsistency that bothers me the most.

0:47.8

You'll have neighbors whose homes are right next to each other.

0:50.7

They've suffered the exact same damage, but they're treated totally differently by the

0:54.3

insurance adjusters.

0:56.0

A California Department of Insurance spokesperson says the vast majority of them.

1:00.1

That scenario, which is based on a true story, isn't uncommon.

1:05.5

Floods, earthquakes, fires, and other natural disasters can damage your house and your

1:09.8

neighbor's house in equal measure.

1:12.3

But the insurance settlements can vary dramatically.

1:15.7

Even when neighbors have similar homes, similar damage, and even identical insurance policies.

1:22.2

In this episode of Traceology, we'll dive into a phenomenon that has major implications

1:27.8

for homeowners, the world of sports, and even the complex world of wine.

...

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