What's up guys? On this episode of Full Signal, I sit down with Hamilton Reiner.

He is the head of US equity derivatives at JPMorgan Asset Management.

He is a wealth of knowledge. We get into asset allocation, portfolio strategies,

and the funds and ETFs that he is personally managing. This is a fantastic conversation,

full of insight. We even get into Lehman Brothers and his time there before the great crash.

I hope you enjoy this conversation. Hamilton, it's great to see you. I would love to get into your

high-level view of markets right now. I know you manage a lot of different funds, a lot of

ETFs. How are you thinking about stock exposure right now? Sure. So first of all,

thank you for having me. As far as stock exposure, I'm pretty constructive on markets. And the

reason is is returns are usually driven by earnings. And when you look at the overall market,

the MAG 7 are wonderful because they have above average level of earnings. People are thinking,

let's call it the low 20%. let's call it 23, 24.

But what's really cool is the other 493.

We're expecting, let's call it around 11% earnings power out of them.

And you blend that together, the S&P 500, people expect to have about 14% of earnings. Now, whether P.E. stay the same or maybe even come in a little bit,

the fact that we have 14% earnings growth means that we should expect high, single digit, low double

digit returns this year. But as I said, the other 493 are having earnings. Some of the best earnings they've had in years as far as

their growth. So you expect to see a broadening of the rally. I would say on any given year,

stocks are up 75% of time. So not being constructive on stocks means you're betting on the 25. I tend to

like odds. I like the idea of staying with the 75% as a starting point and the earnings

component as well. Yeah, I like the odds as well. When you think about the AI trade evolving this

year, and I see a lot of people, including people from J.P. Morgan, talking about this shift into more,

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