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Thoughts on the Market

Jonathan Garner: An Underappreciated Turnaround Story?

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Business, Markets, Strategy, Alternatives, Equities, Fixed Income, Global, Economics, Macro, Investing

4.8 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 14 January 2020

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and Emerging Markets equity strategist kicks off his premiere episode with what is likely the most interesting—and overlooked—turnaround story in equity markets.


Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia and

0:06.2

Emerging Markets Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley.

0:08.8

Along with my colleagues in the US and Europe, bringing you their variety of

0:12.2

perspectives, I'll be providing input on this large, growing and increasingly complex part of the global economy.

0:18.0

It's Tuesday, January 14th in Hong Kong at 9 a.m.

0:22.0

I've been based with the firm here in Hong Kong for the last

0:24.8

10 years but for my first episode I want to focus on Japan a market we're known for

0:29.8

being structurally bullish on in investment it's often trends which are building up under

0:34.0

the radar which are more important and that is what is happening in Japan equities.

0:38.0

In fact we are calling it the most underappreciated turnaround story in global equities.

0:43.4

Over the last seven years, since the launch of Abenomics under Japanese Premier Abesan,

0:48.7

Japan equities have already outperformed the broad emerging markets index,

0:53.1

which I also cover, by over 50% in US dollar terms.

0:57.1

In fact, over that period, their risk-adjusted returns,

1:00.1

so that's returns adjusted for volatility are second only to the US and

1:04.4

significantly better than Europe and almost all emerging equity markets.

1:08.8

Now why is this happening?

1:10.3

Surely Japan has weak demographics, growth and corporate governance.

1:14.0

Hardly sounds like a good investment story.

1:17.0

But this pessimistic consensus, we think, is looking in the rearview mirror

1:21.0

and misses important signs of improvement in Japan's macro and micro performance

1:26.2

in recent years.

...

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