John Taylor on the State of the Economy

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🗓️ 19 July 2010

⏱️ 58 minutes

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Summary

John Taylor of Stanford University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the state of the economy. Is the economy recovering? What policies have helped and hurt? Taylor gives his views on both monetary and fiscal policy including the stimulus package passed last year, and current Fed policy. The conversation closes with a discussion of the global economy, particularly Poland and its recent success in avoiding recession.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to Econ Talk, part of the Library of Economics and Liberty. I'm your host Russ Roberts
0:13.9	of George Mason University and Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Our website is econtalk.org
0:21.2	where you can subscribe, find other episodes, comment on this podcast, and find links to
0:26.5	another information related to today's conversation. Our email address is mailadicontalk.org. We'd
0:33.6	love to hear from you. Today is July 8th, 2010 and my guest is John Taylor, the Marion
0:42.7	Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and the George P. Schultz senior
0:47.7	fellow economics at the Hoover Institution. John, welcome back to Econ Talk.
0:51.3	Great to be back, thank you. Our topic today is the state of the economy. A lot of people
0:56.4	worried about a double-dip recession. The economy appears to be, quote, losing steam. A metaphor
1:03.1	I always find annoying that is if it's some great engine has to be stoked constantly. Where
1:08.3	do you think we're headed? I think it's slow. There's a slow down from the beginning
1:13.8	of what looked like a stronger recovery. The last year we growth linked down from 5, 6 to
1:20.6	2, 7, first quarter this year. So it seems to me it's a slow down. I don't see another recession
1:28.6	unless there's a big shop of some kind, some kind of a shock. It seems to me a slow down.
1:35.5	I think that the recovery itself is becoming a little disappointing though. It seems like
1:40.5	it could have been better. There's not a lot that I see picking up. I'm worried about uncertainty
1:46.8	about policy. So I think it's unfortunately a little bit of a lackluster recovery, but I don't
1:52.7	see a double-dip right now unless there's some other shock. What do you think is going on in
1:57.8	the labor market? When we talk about the recovery we're disappointing. It's one, the main
2:02.5	error I think people point to is that job growth has been mediocre. Unemployment has only come
2:08.2	down to the extent that people have been discouraged. What do you think is happening there?
2:12.8	Well I think partly it's a slow of the slowness of the recovery. When you're getting growth
	...

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