Jobs and wages weakening
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 3 November 2023
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Episode transcripts seekingalpha.com/wsb.
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Show Notes
Banks at 80-year low vs. S&P 500 and tech is at an all time high
Reading Wall Street Research Like A Pro
The Las Vegas Strip is a week away from its biggest worker strike in history
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action news and analysis. |
| 0:11.0 | Good afternoon. Today is Friday, November 3rd, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story so far. |
| 0:17.0 | The October jobs report came in weaker than expected, which brought out stock and bond bulls. |
| 0:22.0 | A looser labor market would likely be the final piece |
| 0:24.4 | in the puzzle for the Fed and this tightening cycle. Non-fond payrolls rose by 150,000, |
| 0:30.4 | lower than the 180,000 expected. |
| 0:33.0 | The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, |
| 0:35.7 | and average hourly earnings are 0.2%, softer than forecasts for 0.3%. |
| 0:41.0 | Channey's Gie Labah notes that there was a lot of noise from strikes worth about 30,000 up or down on payrolls, |
| 0:46.5 | while a downward revision of 101,000 tempered the gain in September, although it's still strong. Pantheon Macro says, |
| 0:54.0 | wage growth is slowing, the 3.2% annualized increase between July and October |
| 0:59.0 | was the smallest three-month increase since March 2021, |
| 1:02.0 | and is in line with pre-pandemic pace. |
| 1:05.0 | While the numbers are volatile, right now the numbers look good and they reinforce the message |
| 1:09.1 | from the ECI wages data and leading indicators, notably the quits rate, which is also back to its pre-pandemic level. |
| 1:17.0 | The report helped continue the Everything is Awesome Trade. |
| 1:19.8 | Yesterday productivity came in strong, but that didn't matter as the Fed won't hike. |
| 1:23.6 | Today jobs came in weak and that means the Fed can start cutting sooner. |
| 1:27.5 | Janis Labass says, there's nothing in the report that would advocate against the Fed's |
| 1:31.4 | current hold bias. The market odds of a rate hike in December fell to 10%, |
| 1:36.4 | while swaps brought in rate cut expectations to the June meeting. Stocks are higher with the |
| 1:41.8 | S&P 500 looking well on its way to its best week since June. |
... |
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