Welcome back, best ever listeners, to the Horizon podcast. I'm John Chang, and I've been active in

real estate investing most of my life, and since 2007, I've led the research and advisory

services team at Marcus de Milichap, the leading commercial real estate brokerage company.

Now, I must mention, as always, that I'm doing this podcast independently and what I say on this show does not reflect the opinions or positions of Marcus and Milichap.

So, what's top of mind for me these days? And I promise I'm going to have a guest on here shortly. In one of my upcoming videos, I have a couple people who are going to be great.

They're lined up.

I've just been traveling a lot,

and I just really haven't had a reliable calendar to book in people.

So I'm doing this on myself, all by myself again.

But what is top of mind right now is interest rates. And, you know, I keep tracking all of these

different measurements and especially FedWatch, right? Fedwatch is basically the reflection of what

Wall Street's opinion is of what rates will be based on how bonds are

trading and where people are putting their capital. And right now, and this changes like daily,

hourly sometimes. But right now, the prediction from FedWatch based on investors on Wall Street

is that by the end of July,

there's a 60% likelihood that rates will be at least 25 basis points lower.

By the end of October, the bet is 70% that rates will be at least 50 basis points lower.

And by mid-December, a 57.5% probability the rates will be at least 75 basis

points lower. Now, I'm talking about the Fed funds rate here. So that is controlled by the Federal

Reserve. It's the overnight rate. It's what the banks lend money to each other, the interest rate on

that overnight, basically. So, but it's an important benchmark of the overall interest rate climate.

You remember in, in, you know, 22, 23, the Fed was pushing rates higher and the 10-year trended with it and

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