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Good morning, everyone, and welcome back. I'm Playbook co-author, Ryan Lizza. It's Tuesday,

January 2nd. I hope you had a restful holiday because 2024 promises to be an enormously consequential

year in politics. Here's what's driving today. First up, the House and Senate are out,

but there are two big pieces of unfinished business from 2023 that will dominate the first weeks

of 2024 on the Hill, government funding for the new fiscal year,

and the $100 billion supplemental for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, a bill that Republicans are

demanding be paired with new border security policies. We have an intriguing update this morning

on those supplemental negotiations. You'll recall that as we went

into the holiday break, Democrats were facing growing outrage from the left, that the White House

was giving away too much to Republicans in those border security talks. Well, there's a little

less freak out right now. We hear the border security negotiations are still

focused on two big things, triggers for expulsion authority and finding language about expedited

removal in the interior. But activists on the left say they're being told that the issue of

restricting presidential parole, the third big issue in those talks,

is no longer on the table.

In fact, one very plugged-in source tells Playbook they believe the removal of parole,

which is still a top priority for House Republicans, means a bill is increasingly unlikely

to pass, even if the senators negotiating a deal come up with a framework.

We'll see if that holds up, but the big point here is that the tone on the left, which has been a useful proxy for the likelihood of a deal,

has shifted from grave alarm to cautious optimism that a bill is out of reach. On the other big issue that will

dominate Capitol Hill in the coming weeks, the threat of a government shutdown, here's one dynamic

...