Good Tuesday morning, I'm Jake Sherman and welcome to your Politico Playbook Audio Briefing,

sponsored by the National Retail Federation. And I'm Anna Palmer. For your awareness,

aides to House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, Senate Majority Whip John

Cornyn, and House Minority Whip Stey Hoyer, are continuing to talk and are likely to meet

this afternoon to

continue to try to work out an immigration deal based on what we know about congress there is a zero

percent chance that a deal can be reached at this point and passed this week the rule of thumb

congress typically needs three or so days to review a big legislative package. We are three days away from a government

shutdown. Here are the big questions. Will Congress be able to pass a short-term stopgap spending

bill this week? Will House GOP defense hawks and conservatives give the leadership another month of

negotiating? House Republicans are meeting tonight to discuss how they

will proceed on a short-term funding bill, and will Senate Democrats allow a short-term spending bill to

pass without an immigration deal? The New York Times makes a sharp point in its lead story that we

should all keep in mind. They say a shutdown would have unknown political consequences. We don't know who voters

would blame for a shutdown. For example, in 2014, after the government shut down, Republicans

won the Senate and expanded their majority in the House. But Republicans control government,

and it's typically the party in charge that owns a shutdown. It'll be hard for Republicans to push

off all the blame. Here's a look at the stakes. First, Speaker Paul Ryan.

He wants an immigration deal, but as Speaker, he has to contend with his right wing, which is always agitating against him.

There's chatter on the right that Ryan is going to join with Democrats and a neophyte president, always hungry for a deal, to sell out conservatives.

He and his leadership team are seeing projections they could lose something like 40 seeds in the

House, which would cost them the majority.

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