It's Worse than You Think
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 3 March 2023
⏱️ 35 minutes
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Summary
I have written about excessive indebtedness many times in these Dividend Cafe pages, including a piece nearly two years ago that I think has held up quite well. Lately I have written about Japanification, which is not quite the same topic (though there is certainly heavy overlap).
I have long believed in treating the disease, not the symptoms, and I didn't even go to medical school (in fact, if I had, it seems these days I'd be less likely to believe that). That may be an overused cliche, but it has utility when it comes to how we think about our personal lives, our health, our finances, and so many other things. And when it comes to the issue of Japanification I think the overall subject will be served to look with more granularity at the nature of the excessive debt to which I refer.
This is a seriously action-packed Dividend Cafe, and if you do not agree after reading it you are entitled to a full refund of your subscription price.
Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe ...
Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3KMCDrK
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Well, hello and welcome to this week's Dividend Cafe. You may be able to tell that I'm not sitting in my studio in New York. I am in the office in New York, and yet our studio, |
| 0:24.3 | which is, you know, right here in the office is having some tech difficulties. And so we decided |
| 0:29.4 | just to go old school and have me come sit right here at my desk and record Dividendon Cafe for you |
| 0:35.9 | as if we didn't have our big fancy studios that we use so much. |
| 0:41.0 | I don't think you care much and those you listen to the podcast really don't care. |
| 0:45.4 | I want to talk to you today about a pretty sober subject, something much more important than |
| 0:50.4 | our studios and where we record and things like that. |
| 0:54.3 | And that is the subject of the U.S.'s debt issue. |
| 1:00.6 | And there's a kind of fascinating angle on this where I make an argument, |
| 1:07.1 | as I've been making for some time, |
| 1:08.8 | that the U.S. faces a real systemic problem of low, slow, and no growth. |
| 1:16.0 | And I call this problem Japanification. |
| 1:19.0 | And the basic kind of setup goes something like this, that an asset bubble forms. |
| 1:26.5 | And that could be from a combination of circumstances. You can have |
| 1:30.8 | government policy feeding a bubble, excessive, overly accommodative easy money, government |
| 1:38.5 | stimulus. You can have just general investor euphoria, human nature doing what it does. |
| 1:45.4 | There's a lot of things that create a bubble. |
| 1:47.9 | And yet a bubble that forms eventually, of course, pops and bursts. |
| 1:53.3 | And then great economic damage is done. |
| 1:55.6 | And if the bubble that burst led to enough economic damage by which profits decline in the economy, |
| 2:05.4 | wages decline, jobs decline. |
... |
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