It’s The Economy, Israel and Tariffs, Stupid | GoodFellows | Hoover Institution

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4.6 • 717 Ratings

🗓️ 18 October 2025

⏱️ 62 minutes

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Summary

A hostage return and the signing of a cease-fire agreement signal a new chapter in the long-running dream of peace in the Middle East. Did it matter that the key negotiators, on the US side, were financiers and real-estate developers rather than scions of America’s diplomatic corps? Russell Berman, a Hoover Institution senior fellow and codirector of Hoover’s Working Group on the Middle East and the Islamic World, joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the sturdiness of the Trump White House’s 20-point peace plan, the futures of Hamas and the Abraham Accords, the likelihood of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reliving Winston Churchill’s fate (a successful wartime leader rejected by a war-weary electorate), plus whether the “real estate-ism” approach to diplomacy is applicable to President Trump’s upcoming meetings with his Russian and Chinese counterparts. After that, Niall and John reflect on the likelihood of a market crash (it is October, after all), the chances of a full-fledged tariff war with China, the merits of a US-Argentina currency swap, plus an ominous warning from the International Monetary Fund regarding global debt. Finally, the fellows salute the legendary economist Thomas Sowell, the subject of a Hoover Institution tribute later this month. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today’s biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.

Transcript

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0:00.0	It's Friday, October 17, 2025, and welcome back to Goodfellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast
0:13.3	examining history, economics, and geopolitics. I'm Bill Whalen. I'm the moderator today, and I have a
0:19.1	very envious job because I get to sit back and game from the collective wisdom of a couple of my colleagues we jokingly refer to as the Goodfellows. That would include the historian Sir Neil Ferguson, hello, Neil, and the economist John Cochran.
0:32.1	Normally we have a third Goodfellow, that's Lieutenant General, H.R. McMaster, but the Good general cannot join us today. We will somehow soldier on in his absence.
0:40.2	So gentlemen, two topics to get into today.
0:43.2	I want to talk economics with you guys.
0:45.4	October is a month.
0:46.4	A lot of people identify with economic hardship and bad news, stock market crashes, bank runs,
0:51.6	and whatnot.
0:52.6	So Neil and John, I want the two of you to bat around some economic issues. But before that, let's talk about the big topic this week. And that is the prospect of peace in the Middle East. And joining us through this conversation is Russell Berman. Russell Berman is the Walter A. Haas professor at Humanities here at Stanford University. He is a Hoover Institution
1:11.3	senior fellow, as are Neil and John. Russell also co-chairs Hoover's working group on the Middle East
1:16.4	and the Islamic world. Russell, welcome to Goodfellows. Thanks for having you. So, let's talk about
1:23.2	the peace in Middle East. Now, we could do an entire hour just on the history of peace deals, why some work and others don't.
1:30.2	Today, in fact, is the 31st anniversary of Israel and Jordan, initializing a peace deal.
1:36.5	We're also closing in on 25 years since Bill Clinton tried to broker a deal between Israel and the PLO in the closing days of his presidency.
1:44.6	Russell, I assume that you and John and Neil, I assume you also looked at the 20-point plan put forward by the White House.
1:50.4	Formerly, it is called the Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity.
1:55.1	And Russell, let's focus on that word enduring.
1:57.8	You've looked at the plan and my question to you, is it a plan that's designed to
2:02.0	succeed or is it destined to fail? Bill, thanks for having me for this discussion. The plan is
2:09.5	complex and a lot of details remain to be worked out. I don't want to throw cold water on it, and it has succeeded in bringing
2:19.1	out the live hostages, a very important first step, but it expects a lot that has already
	...

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