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The Briefing Room

Israel/Gaza: What happens next?

The Briefing Room

BBC

News, News Commentary

4.8731 Ratings

🗓️ 19 October 2023

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Israel and Hamas are at war and there are no signs of a quick resolution. But what would a resolution actually look like and who's actually going to try and negotiate one?

David Aaronovitch talks to:

Shashank Joshi, Defence editor at The Economist Steven Erlanger, Chief Diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times Professor Lina Khatib, Director of the Middle East Institute at SOAS University of London

Production: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Sophie Hill and Jacqui Johnson Sound: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Transcript

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0:00.0

BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, Podcasts.

0:07.8

It's nearly two weeks since Hamas, in effect, declared war on Israel.

0:13.3

The Israeli's stated goal as of today is the destruction of Hamas,

0:17.4

and troops and tanks are sitting on the border

0:19.9

with the tiny but densely populated

0:22.1

enclave of Gaza waiting for the order to go in. But what happens next? And what happens after that?

0:30.2

Step inside the briefing room and together we'll try to find out.

0:36.8

Firstly, there's been talk of an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza for several days now, but it hasn't happened yet.

0:43.2

Why not? Shashank Joshi is Defence Editor at The Economist.

0:47.4

Shashank Joshi, before we start talking about what would or could happen if there is a ground war in Gaza,

0:57.1

what is the latest we know about the Gaza hospital blast? We have three main pieces of evidence and the most important one is the

1:02.1

images from the site. And what those images show is that there is little indication of the

1:08.3

kind of damage we would have expected from an Israeli

1:11.5

airstrike. There's no big crater, for instance. There's no huge damage to the upper side of

1:16.4

vehicles or roofs you might expect from an air burst bomb. It is more consistent with what

1:21.9

the Israeli claim is that this was a malfunctioning Hamas rocket. There are two other pieces

1:26.7

of evidence which are

1:27.5

slightly less solid. One is the voice intercepts of militants from Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian

1:33.8

group talking about their rocket launch. And I know that Western officials are looking

1:38.1

into those very closely. And the third piece, which I take seriously, is the American claim

1:43.2

that their satellites saw the

1:45.7

infrared emissions, the infrared signs of the launch at the time. And that contributed to Joe

...

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