Is This the Endgame? with Itay Vinik
Bankless
Bankless
4.7 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 7 December 2022
⏱️ 86 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Itay Vinik is the Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi, an alternative investment platform that brings investment strategies to accredited investors.
Is this the endgame? This is the central theme of today's episode. Further, we dive into Itay's outlook on 2023 and beyond. This episode is also very chart heavy. What are the charts telling us?
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
7:55 How Itay Got Here
8:50 Itay's Crypto Experience
10:20 Inputs on Terra/LUNA
12:42 Itay's Sentiment
14:00 History of the Macro Environment
17:42 Global Central Bank Policy Rate
22:30 U.S. Fed Balance Sheet
26:00 Everything That Broke
30:21 Nasdaq-100 Index & Fed Balance Sheet
33:00 Pandemic Support Programs
34:00 U.S. Personal Savings Rate
35:00 U.S. M2
36:40 Where Are We Now?
39:55 Inflation
42:25 Retail Sales & Non-Farm Payrolls
44:40 Housing
47:30 2023
54:37 The Last Dance?
1:04:00 Possible Outcomes
1:13:30 Demographics
1:18:00 Bull Market Mid-2023
1:19:00 The Dollar
1:22:40 Itay's Advice & Closing
1:25:40 Disclaimers
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Resources:
Itay Vinik
https://www.linkedin.com/in/itayvinik/
Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hey, Bangladesh Nation, the title for today's episode, are we at the end of the game now? |
| 0:10.0 | Dave and I are talking about macro. |
| 0:12.0 | We've got to pop our heads up from everything that's going on in SBF FTX. |
| 0:16.0 | And look at the wider world here, because I think there are some looming macro questions that face us |
| 0:22.0 | as we are ending 2022 and going into 2023 with the perfect guests to talk about them. |
| 0:27.0 | But the big questions in my mind that I asked this macro analyst. |
| 0:31.0 | Is it a guess I think has some fantastic perspectives on this? |
| 0:35.0 | How did we get here, right? |
| 0:37.0 | Look, what's the history of how we got here? |
| 0:39.0 | Where are we now pinpoint us on the map? |
| 0:43.0 | When do we pivot? |
| 0:45.0 | When is this fed pivot going to happen? |
| 0:47.0 | Was Powell's next move? |
| 0:49.0 | And lastly, is this the end? |
| 0:51.0 | I don't mean the end of all human civilization, David. |
| 0:53.0 | I'm talking about like, oh, thank God. |
| 0:55.0 | And the end of this credit debt cycle that we seem to be in. |
| 1:01.0 | Radalio talks about this, right? |
| 1:03.0 | You only get so many spins at this wheel before everything falls apart. |
| 1:07.0 | So who do we have on that episode? |
| 1:09.0 | And why is this important? |
| 1:11.0 | Yeah, we have a macro commentator, Etai, who has come in with a bunch of charts. |
... |
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