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The a16z Show

"Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George

The a16z Show

a16z

Science, Innovation, Business, Entrepreneurship, Culture, Disruption, Software Eating The World, Technology

4.41.1K Ratings

🗓️ 30 October 2025

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this conversation from a16z’s Runtime conference, Gavin Baker, Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, joins David George, General Partner at a16z, to unpack the macro view of AI: the trillion-dollar data center buildout, the new economics of GPUs, and what this boom means for investors, founders, and the global economy.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Are we in an AI bubble? I do not believe we're in an AI bubble today. I was, depending on how you look at it, the privilege and the misfortune of being a tech investor during the year 2000 bubble, which was really a telecom bubble. I think it's really helpful to compare and contrast today to the year 2000. The year 2000 internet bubble or telecom bubble was defined by something called dark fiber. At the peak, 97% of the fiber that had been laid was dark.

0:25.6

Contrast that with today.

0:27.2

There are no dark GPUs.

0:30.0

Every major technology cycle raises the same question.

0:33.1

Is it real?

0:33.9

Are we in a bubble?

0:35.5

Today, you'll hear a conversation from runtime between Gavin Baker, managing director and

0:39.9

CIO of a tradies management and David George, general partner at A16Z, about how AI

0:45.5

is reshaping the global economy.

0:47.9

From capital allocation and infrastructure spending to business models and margins.

0:52.4

It's a detailed data-driven look at where we actually are in the

0:55.3

AI cycle and what's likely to happen next. Let's get into it. And that brings us to our opening

1:03.1

fireside chat. We're going to start with a taboo question right out of the gate. Are you ready for it?

1:09.6

If AI is the biggest trend in the world right now,

1:12.6

where is the evidence for it? Why is it only just beginning to show up in the economy? And as

1:18.0

Andre Carpathie asked, are agents really just ghosts? To kick this off and to help us answer this

1:24.3

question, please join us in welcoming Gavin Baker, managing partner and

1:28.3

CIO of Atreides. Now, some of you may know Gavin as that really thoughtful guy on Twitter.

1:34.1

Anytime some big piece of AI news comes out, I know more than a few people who count on Gavin

1:39.0

to explain what the F is really going on. So a huge thank you to Gavin for being with us today.

1:44.8

Joining him is our very own David George,

1:46.8

general partner at A16Z.

...

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