4.6 • 3.5K Ratings
🗓️ 7 June 2025
⏱️ 10 minutes
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Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult-to-answer questions. The UN estimates is 8.2 billion, but that’s largely based on census data, which is certainly not a perfect measure.
So when a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. This would be a big error - a 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were.
One newspaper in Spain - El Mundo - did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are.
But is it what the researchers in Finland actually meant?
“Absolutely not,” says Josias Lang-Ritter, a researcher from University in Finland and a co-author of the study.
Tim Harford speaks to Josias to figure out the right way of understanding the study.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Caroline Bayley Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
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0:00.0 | Before this BBC podcast kicks off, I'd like to tell you about some others you might enjoy. |
0:05.1 | My name's Will Wilkin and I Commission Music Podcast for the BBC. |
0:08.7 | It's a really cool job, but every day we get to tell the incredible stories behind songs, |
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0:39.0 | Hello and thanks for downloading the more or less podcast. We're your guide to the numbers |
0:43.9 | in the news and in life, and I'm Tim Harford. |
0:51.6 | Exactly how many people live on our planet is one of those difficult to answer questions. |
0:57.8 | 8.2 billion is the UN estimate, but that's based largely on census data. |
1:03.1 | And does everyone, everywhere, always fill in a census when it comes along every 10 years or so? |
1:09.2 | Probably not. So in a recent study from Finland found that rural populations around the world |
1:15.5 | had been underestimated by 50 to over 80%, the media got quite excited. |
1:22.7 | This would be a huge error. |
1:24.7 | A 50% underestimate would mean the actual number of people in an area is double the number they thought there were. |
1:32.3 | One newspaper in Spain, El Mundo, did its own sums and said this meant there were potentially 2 billion more people in the world than we currently think there are. |
1:43.2 | That is a big number. But is it what the researchers |
1:47.4 | in Finland actually meant? Absolutely not. So what's going on? Yosius Langruta, a researcher |
1:56.5 | at Alto University in Finland, was a co-author of the report. |
... |
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