Is the UK on the brink of recession?

Coffee House Shots

The Spectator

Politics, Daily News, News

4.4 • 2.2K Ratings

🗓️ 11 November 2022

⏱️ 11 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The ONS forecasts reveal that UK output fell by 0.2 per cent between July-September. Whilst not a recession yet, it is increasingly likely the next quarter will see another dip following a surge in interest rates. Will the government's messaging change ahead of the Autumn Statement next week? Also on the podcast, Kate and James discuss Kwasi Kwarteng's interview in The Times as he reflects on his short time as Chancellor.

Isabel Hardman is joined by Kate Andrews and James Forsyth.

Produced by Natasha Feroze

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Transcript

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0:00.0	This episode is sponsored by Canacor Genuity Wealth Management, experienced wealth planners and
0:05.6	investment managers who offer unwavering support in challenging times. Visit kanduwealth.com for more information.
0:16.3	Hello and welcome to Coffee House shots, spectators, daily politics podcasts. I'm
0:20.7	Israel Harbman and I'm joined by Kate Andrews and James Forsype. Well the Chancellor,
0:25.6	Jeremy Hunt has been out and about this morning responding to the latest ONS figures on GDP,
0:33.0	which report a dip in output for September means that the UK is moving towards recession.
0:39.5	Kate, just take us through these latest figures. We have several figures to update listeners
0:44.8	with this morning from the Office for National Statistics. So in September the economy is
0:49.6	reportative contracted by 0.6%, but of course that was the month that the Queen sadly passed away.
0:56.5	We had an additional bank holiday and there was a lot of disruption to business and normal
1:00.6	economic activity around that and the ONS estimates that roughly half of the contraction can be
1:06.7	added on to that vent, but that would still suggest that roughly 0.3% contraction is due to
1:14.4	other things. Perhaps the bigger and more worrying figure is the report for Q3, which shows that the
1:20.8	economy contracted by 0.2% overall. So that's not some one-off event like that extra bank holiday
1:28.8	that is signals more of a trend. It should be noted that contraction is not as bad as many had
1:36.8	predicted the Bank of England thought that it was going to be a contraction of about a half a
1:40.7	percentage point and also these figures are revised and sometimes they're revised upwards so you
1:45.8	know we're kind of in a margin of error right now, but the obvious concern with so many predicting
1:51.8	recession for the future, the Bank of England now predicting potentially the longest recession
1:56.5	on record, but that would be about two years long, is that if we contract in Q4 as well then we
2:03.0	need the technical definition of recession and we go from there. Of course I always do like to
2:08.1	highlight that even if you're not meeting the technical definition of recession many people will
	...

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