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Is the US skidding toward recession? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Dally briefing

with me today is Darius Dale founder of 42 macro. Hi, Darius. Great to see you.

Hey, Maggie. It's a pleasure to be back with you. How are you doing? Well, thanks. I'm

doing well. We are looking at kind of mixed action in the market today. We had the

Dow up, NASDAQ lower equities just closed here as we're speaking, treasury yields fell

a little bit, but it seems like the focus has really been on some of this economic data

that's been coming in much much of it this week weaker than expected, including those

private payrolls, ADB private payrolls we had today and ISM services index. What is your

dashboard suggesting is the US economy headed toward recession? What do you see happening?

Yeah, I mean, look, we've been saying this for a while now, but a US economy is very

resilient for a variety of different factors, which we can impact. And as a function of the

resilience, the Fed is going to tighten more than the markets are paying. Both of those

things have been realized both in the data and in market and in that reaction function

terms. And as a function of B, C is we're going to wind up in an economic downturn. I have

couldn't believe the economic downturn we're likely to experience is something that's

likely to commence. Our models would suggest that it's likely to commence some time in Q4

of 2023 or the very latest Q1 of 2024 that may be in the process of being pulled forward. I'm

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