Is the Market Pricing In Peace?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 30 March 2022

⏱️ 34 minutes

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Summary

Although no formal agreements have been reached, Moscow has said it will redeploy troops and reduce military activity around Kyiv, and Ukraine has said it will adopt a neutral stance in exchange for a Russian ceasefire, stoking optimism the end of the war in Eastern Europe is in sight. Delegates from Russia and Ukraine met face-to-face in Istanbul Tuesday, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying the discussions had yielded the most significant progress to date. Equity indexes in Europe closed higher across the board, and U.S. stocks are holding solid gains two hours shy of the close of regular trading in New York. Meanwhile, the bond market is on course for its worst quarterly loss on record after the Federal Reserve launched its monetary tightening efforts this month and signaled the potential for more aggressive hikes. With tensions seemingly easing in Eastern Europe, inflation remains the major threat to global growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies to talk about the market’s response to Russia-Ukraine and the Fed’s response to inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ljle6U. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. It's Tuesday, March 29th, 2022. I'm Warren Pies,
0:11.7	founder at 314 Research. Today, I'm joined by Tony Greer, founder of TG macro. Tony,
0:19.6	good to have you back. How are you doing? I'm great, Warren. How are you doing, man?
0:23.6	I'm good. It feels like every time we do one of these, it's been a pretty eventful market day.
0:28.3	No exception today. Let's get to it. Let's talk about the action. What I saw out there,
0:35.7	market rally, obviously, some reports that Russia, Ukraine could be cooling off and that Russian
0:43.3	forces are retreating. That kind of lit the wick for all of these different trades that we've
0:51.1	been monitoring, starting to unwind. But in the background, some interesting and I think really
0:57.4	much talked about developments economically. We saw the 210 yield curve finally invert. I don't
1:03.1	know exactly where it closed, but at some point today, it was officially inverted for the first time
1:07.5	the cycle following on from the Ford OIS curve inverting that we've talked about. We see some
1:14.0	ominous economic signs out there, some positive geopolitical signs and the markets are really,
1:20.3	this has been the most hated rally I can remember in my trading career. I have to admit,
1:27.2	I haven't seen it correctly and didn't see it coming. So I wanted to pick your brain. See what
1:32.3	you take on it all was and what was really grabbing your attention today. Yeah, Warren, this stuff
1:39.7	is really, really tough to figure out right now. It feels like today is the first day in a while
1:45.4	that we haven't seen two-year yields roofing to a new high. So there's a little bit of a sea change
1:53.0	there. We've got break evens pulling back off of the high prints in fairly large magnitude.
1:59.4	So what it really is is we had that inflation theme, steam roll rolling for a while.
2:05.9	We've had extremely strong commodities that maybe found their Icarus prints into the Ukraine
2:13.3	Russia story, backed off into a dip and then we saw a rally and now we're kind of consolidating
2:20.6	somewhere in between. But like you said, we've got now the Russia, Ukraine, peace talk,
	...

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