Is the market getting ahead of itself? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision deli briefing with me today is Dale Pinkert trading coats at trade gate hub. Hi, tell welcome back right to be back with the Maggie and our timing is impeccable being together at perhaps inflection points two times in a row.

And we're going to we're going to get to some of them. I'm really interested as to why you think that is, but you know, it feels like there is a lot going on and there has been a lot going on since we last talked at the very end of September.

The equity markets just close here in the US, rocking up yet another rally, NASDAQ of 1.6% ish as we settle S&P up about a percent.

Does it feel like the market's getting ahead of itself? How are you thinking about this equity rally that we've seen, which is 11 12% since since it slows.

Well, we're right at the 61 8% level of Maggie and, you know, we could have a little pullback here because there's an old wall street expression that the bears feast on Thanksgiving and the polls do on Christmas.

We could have a we could have a little pullback and the VIX is trying to pop, but I think ultimately a lot of people are going to be looking at 4100 S&Ps.

And if you just everyone's looking at the same trend line, if you just put your trend line at the all time high and then the high we had in August, it comes in at 4100.

And I do believe we're going to break out over that level and people are going to become even more enthusiastic perhaps into it December and 43 4400 I think is doable.

And, but I don't think the low at 3600 is going to be it. And I think we're going to have a gross scare going into next year and yield to peak.

That's another big story, the 10 year peak without making new highs last week after the Fed after benign CPIs at 425 instead of 435 where it's in the 380s.

I'm looking for about a 3% 10 year going into January. So people would think that would be bullish everything and it is.

But later on it may not be because rates could go down because of narrative change to changes to a gross scare and economic weakness.

Yeah, that's a great point down and actually a colleague of ours Andreas was tweeting out something similar because it does seem that we're in that bad news is good news because everyone's looking for that pause or pivot from the Fed when I say everyone I'm talking about, you know, the people driving equities higher.

But Andreas was tweeting out two things remember we need to pivot in both rates and QT.

So I forget about quantitative tightening to turn positive on equities and that recession is the reason that CPI is declining.

So it sounds like that's that's really what you're talking about we get that gross scare that's going to hit more that's going to hit earnings right that's going to hit profits that's not good for equities.

That's how you get 3000 S&P next year.

Probably into the spring is my best guess.

So why are we why are we rallying now when we know that is this to distribute stocks before the pros take it down again.

Yeah.

And for and people being off sides being caught being to bear it we had record amount of puts before the Fed being bought and the first CPI and the PPI.

And that performance anxiety for fund managers that going into year end they're going to have to show some performance because of how much the market has rallied off the 3600 level.

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