Is the Kenyan election already decided?
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 4 March 2013
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Kenya votes for its next President on 4th March. The opinion polls show that it is neck-and-neck between the two main candidates but an influential Kenyan political scientists has warned that the polls are wrong. Mutahi Ngunyi’s predicting a win for Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Coalition because of what he describes as ‘the tyranny of numbers’ - there are simply more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. But will Kenyans vote along ethnic lines – Ruth Alexander finds out. Also, was the Pope the subject of divine intervention when lightning struck St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican just after he announced he was stepping down? Or was it just a coincidence. More or Less looks at the chances of this occurring.
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Thank you for downloading from the BBC. |
| 0:03.0 | The details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use |
| 0:07.0 | go to BBCWorldService.com slash podcasts. |
| 0:13.0 | Hello, this is Morales on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. |
| 0:21.0 | What were the chances of lightning striking St Peter's Basilica at the Vatican |
| 0:26.0 | just after the Pope announced he was resigning? We'll look at that in a few minutes. |
| 0:31.0 | But first, is the result of next week's Canyon election a foregone conclusion? |
| 0:37.0 | Wesley Stevenson's here too, hi, Wes. |
| 0:39.0 | Hi, Ruth. Yes, on Monday, Kenyans will go to the polls to elect their new president. |
| 0:44.0 | But one political commentator says the election is already decided, |
| 0:47.0 | and in fact, that it was decided in December when voter registration closed. |
| 0:53.0 | Mattai Ungarni says it's already obvious that a Huru Kenyatta is well ahead |
| 0:57.0 | of his main opponent, Ryla Odinga. Why? |
| 1:00.0 | Because, as he told MTV in Kenya, people will vote along ethnic lines. |
| 1:05.0 | The central argument is that in 1992, people voted ethnically. |
| 1:09.0 | 1997, the same thing. 2002, the same thing. 2007, the same thing. |
| 1:14.0 | Why should we do it differently this time? |
| 1:17.0 | A banana tree does not give you bananas today and give you oranges tomorrow. |
| 1:22.0 | So after voter registration closed in December, Mattai Ungarni added up the number of voters |
| 1:27.0 | belonging to the tribes of the two main candidates. |
| 1:30.0 | There are 6.2 million voters from the tribes at Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto |
| 1:35.0 | belonged to, he says, and only about half as many, 2.8 million voters from the tribes, |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from BBC, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of BBC and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.