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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Is the EV Revolution Dead?

Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle

Investing, Business

4.9320 Ratings

🗓️ 23 September 2024

⏱️ 26 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Send us a textAutomakers are hedging their bets on electric vehicles and stepping up their investment in hybrid cars as consumers’ growing disinterest in fully electric vehicles has forced the industry to shift gear.A combination of high EV depreciation and concern over inadequate charging infrastructure has chilled buyers’ enthusiasm for fully electric cars, prompting a rebound in sales of hybrid vehicles that many automakers had ignored.Volvo scrapped its target of going all electric by 203...

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome. You are listening to Patrick Boyle on Finance, a podcast exploring ideas from quantitative finance,

0:08.4

examining events occurring in markets right now and financial history to see what lessons can be taken away,

0:14.9

including interviews with some of the most interesting people in the world of finance. To learn more about the podcast, visit onfinance.org.

0:27.4

Seven million electric vehicles were sold globally in the first half of 2024, which is 20% growth

0:34.8

over the same period in 2023.

0:37.7

Only 1.5 million of those sales were in Europe, according to the research firm Roe Motion,

0:43.8

which amounts to only 1% growth compared to the same period in 2023.

0:49.3

While growth was positive in Italy, France and the UK, where there's strong government EV incentives,

0:55.9

EV sales in Germany, the largest passenger car market in Europe, fell by 18% in the second quarter

1:03.0

of 2024.

1:04.9

EV sales in the United States grew by 10%, which sounds okay, but these statistics include plug-in hybrid vehicles.

1:13.6

And according to PWC, much like in Europe, most of the sales growth seen this year can be explained by growth in hybrid sales, which grew by 28% year-on-year in the United States.

1:26.6

So where did the 20% global growth come from then? by 28% year on year in the United States.

1:27.5

So where did the 20% global growth come from then?

1:31.2

Well, mostly from China, where EV sales grew 30% in the first half of 2024.

1:37.6

But once again, that figure includes plug-in hybrids.

1:41.1

And plug-in hybrids have seen a surge in sales in China, where 60% of the EVs sold

1:47.1

by BYD were actually hybrids.

1:50.5

EV manufacturers, who are priced for massive growth, don't appear to be growing, and the

1:56.5

problem may be that most car buyers don't want an electric vehicle.

2:01.7

An interesting data point is that the markets where EVs have traditionally done best

2:06.8

are showing the sharpest downturn in sales.

...

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