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Money For the Rest of Us

Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.5 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 27 March 2024

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress.

Topics covered include:

  • How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings.
  • Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates.
  • The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes.
  • The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer sentiment.
  • Factors contributing to the high levels of economic uncertainty among households.
  • Key elements required for enhancing consumer confidence in their economic future.
  • The political repercussions stemming from widespread economic dissatisfaction.


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Show Notes

Surveys of Consumers—University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment climbs amid split views on business outlook—University of Michigan

The Purchasing Power of American Households—U.S. Department of the Treasury

Unemployment Rate—St. Louis Fed

We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign—The Wall Street Journal

It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income by Jesse Newman and Heather Haddon—The Wall Street Journal

Consumers are increasingly pushing back against price increases — and winning by Christopher Rugaber—Yahoo! Finance

Kraft Heinz ups ad spend, changes leadership by Christopher Lombardo—Strategy

Many Americans Believe the Economy Is Rigged by Katherine J. Cramer and Johnathon D. Cohen—The New York Times

Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic—Worldometer

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294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

286: Coronavirus and the Financial Impact of Pandemics

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to money for the rest of us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it.

0:09.5

I'm your host David Stein. Today is episode 472. It's titled, Is the Economy as Bad

0:16.2

as People Think? In the US the unemployment rate has been under 4% for two years. That's the best stretch of unemployment since the

0:27.2

1950s. The latest inflation numbers, the US Consumer Price Index. It increased only 3.2% for the year ending February

0:37.4

2024. That's down substantially from 2023 and 22.

0:43.2

Real wages for US workers are higher now than they were prior to the pandemic.

0:50.4

In other words, US workers after adjusting for inflation are making more money than they were four years ago.

0:57.0

Yet surveys of U.S. consumer sentiment show not only did consumer sentiment hit its lowest level ever in mid-2020

1:08.3

but the level of consumer sentiment is still well below what it was prior to the pandemic. Why is there

1:16.4

this disconnect between economic progress and how we feel about the economy? That's what we'll explore in today's episode,

1:25.0

but at first we're going to recognize that,

1:26.0

yeah, the economy is doing better in aggregate,

1:29.0

but it's always doing worse for somebody.

1:32.0

Individuals who have lost their jobs,

1:34.6

individuals who can't afford to pay rent. I was speaking with a friend yesterday

1:40.1

that lives in Phoenix and has had to downgrade their living situation because rents have

1:46.8

shot up so high.

1:48.3

There and in many other places around the country.

1:51.7

First let's take a look at how consumer sentiment is measured.

1:56.5

One of the longest running surveys of consumers is the University of Michigan survey.

2:02.3

It started in 1946, and they do an index of consumer sentiment.

2:08.2

And it's derived from five core questions.

...

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