Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 27 March 2024
⏱️ 25 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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Summary
Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress.
Topics covered include:
- How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings.
- Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates.
- The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes.
- The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer sentiment.
- Factors contributing to the high levels of economic uncertainty among households.
- Key elements required for enhancing consumer confidence in their economic future.
- The political repercussions stemming from widespread economic dissatisfaction.
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Show Notes
Surveys of Consumers—University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment climbs amid split views on business outlook—University of Michigan
The Purchasing Power of American Households—U.S. Department of the Treasury
Unemployment Rate—St. Louis Fed
Kraft Heinz ups ad spend, changes leadership by Christopher Lombardo—Strategy
Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic—Worldometer
Related Episodes
380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success
294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events
286: Coronavirus and the Financial Impact of Pandemics
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to money for the rest of us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it. |
| 0:09.5 | I'm your host David Stein. Today is episode 472. It's titled, Is the Economy as Bad |
| 0:16.2 | as People Think? In the US the unemployment rate has been under 4% for two years. That's the best stretch of unemployment since the |
| 0:27.2 | 1950s. The latest inflation numbers, the US Consumer Price Index. It increased only 3.2% for the year ending February |
| 0:37.4 | 2024. That's down substantially from 2023 and 22. |
| 0:43.2 | Real wages for US workers are higher now than they were prior to the pandemic. |
| 0:50.4 | In other words, US workers after adjusting for inflation are making more money than they were four years ago. |
| 0:57.0 | Yet surveys of U.S. consumer sentiment show not only did consumer sentiment hit its lowest level ever in mid-2020 |
| 1:08.3 | but the level of consumer sentiment is still well below what it was prior to the pandemic. Why is there |
| 1:16.4 | this disconnect between economic progress and how we feel about the economy? That's what we'll explore in today's episode, |
| 1:25.0 | but at first we're going to recognize that, |
| 1:26.0 | yeah, the economy is doing better in aggregate, |
| 1:29.0 | but it's always doing worse for somebody. |
| 1:32.0 | Individuals who have lost their jobs, |
| 1:34.6 | individuals who can't afford to pay rent. I was speaking with a friend yesterday |
| 1:40.1 | that lives in Phoenix and has had to downgrade their living situation because rents have |
| 1:46.8 | shot up so high. |
| 1:48.3 | There and in many other places around the country. |
| 1:51.7 | First let's take a look at how consumer sentiment is measured. |
| 1:56.5 | One of the longest running surveys of consumers is the University of Michigan survey. |
| 2:02.3 | It started in 1946, and they do an index of consumer sentiment. |
| 2:08.2 | And it's derived from five core questions. |
... |
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