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Hello and welcome to Coffeehouse Shots and Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast. I'm Katie

Balls and I'm joined by James Forsyth. 80-20, 50-50, 30-70. I'm beginning to lose concept of mathematics here, James.

But we've had a lot of percentage odds in recent days on the chances of a Brexit deal.

Yet the general gist of it seems to be that there was a lot more hope, at least on the UK side,

the middle to early end of last week, then an intervention which is the UK side

putting on Emmanuel Macron about the fact that the EU was giving too much, so all things

quite quickly turn. We're now in a situation where we're hearing from figures in Downing Street

could be below 50-50. If we get rid of the percentage and the odds completely,

what are the main sticking points now when it comes to getting a Brexit deal?

Well, the main sticking points are what have always been the sticking points,

fish, level, playing field governance. And as we approach the end, they have been talking about

these same three issues for quite some time now.

Now, Boris Johnson and Esther von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission will speak today at 5pm, Brussels time, 4pm, UK time.

And I don't think anyone thinks that they're going to have a deal to bless.

I think the question is whether, as with the Saturday call, can they inject some

creativity into the process that enables a way to, you know, enables people to find a way through

this dilemma? I don't mean there was a kind of bumper load of progress in the talks on Sunday.

I think Michel Barnier was very downbeat when he briefed EU member states this morning.

But I don't think either side have totally given up hope yet.

And I think in a way, the question now is what is the new deadline?

Barnier is suggesting kind of Wednesday

...