4.6 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 24 April 2024
⏱️ 47 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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With Matt back from vacation, he and Brian discuss a bunch of important developments in the news, and zoom out to assess whether it’s really changed race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:
* Has polling data improved enough to make Biden the favorite to win?
* Have developments like Biden’s patient victory in the fight over Ukraine aid, careful management of hostilities between Israel and Iran, and solid economic news contributed to the uptick?
* Is Trump’s legal jeopardy/farting finally taking a toll on his numbers?
Then, paid subscribers hear an assessment of the candidates’ upside or downside potential. Is Biden poised to benefit from a booming economy as inflation memories recede? Does Donald Trump have any way to improve his standing (as opposed to dragging Biden down)? Will prediction that Biden would pull ahead by late April then widen his lead over the summer be vindicated? We hope you enjoy the conversation, and if you’d like to listen to the whole thing, you can upgrade to paid for a private feed that gets you access to the complete Politix archive and all future episodes.
Further reading:
* Brian on how a subset of reflexive critics, including progressives, have become economy deniers, and are holding Biden’s approval polling down.
* Matt on how negativity is making everyone miserable.
* Simon Rosenberg’s prediction, from Greg Sargent’s podcast.
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
0:00.0 | In the same way that reporters gave FDR covered for being in a wheelchair, |
0:05.7 | reporters appear to be giving Donald Trump cover for atrocious farts or something like that. Heh. |
0:13.0 | Hey everyone, you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast. |
0:21.0 | With Matback from Vacation and a bunch of important developments in the news, we're going to zoom out a bit to assess whether the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump really has changed. |
0:31.0 | When we launched politics a few months ago, |
0:34.0 | Biden was really squarely behind in head-to-head polls against Trump. |
0:39.0 | But the polling picture has improved at least somewhat in the past few weeks and the surrounding |
0:43.9 | developments sort of raise the question of whether the Biden campaign's theory of |
0:47.7 | the case has been vindicated. I hope you enjoy the conversation and if you want to hear the whole thing you can |
0:54.6 | upgrade your subscription to paid at politics. fm |
1:00.0 | hey everyone welcome to the politics podcast. I'm Brian Boiler. I'm Matthew Giseus. |
1:06.6 | So a few weeks back when the primaries were still technically unfolding and polls looked really bleak and |
1:12.4 | liberals were agonizing over whether |
1:14.4 | Joe Biden should find some pretext to to drop out and maybe name a successor. |
1:19.9 | The Democratic pollster Simon Rosenberg said, in essence, this is all super premature. |
1:26.0 | This fake primary that we're living through will be over soon, |
1:30.0 | and then the actual race will come into focus for voters and by late April or early May I predict Biden will be up a point or two in the polls with room to grow. |
1:41.0 | Here we are in late April and in the most literal reading of things, I kind |
1:46.4 | of think Simon's been pretty well vindicated. But Matt, why don't you give me the best case, |
1:53.3 | well I guess like in either direction, |
1:55.5 | either that Simon's right and Biden has room to grow |
1:57.6 | and things are looking up, |
... |
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