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Money For the Rest of Us

Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.5 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 2 November 2022

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

How to survive in a world where luck and randomness play a pivotal role.

Topics covered include:

  • What are power laws
  • What are the narrative fallacy and hindsight bias
  • What are examples of domains where randomness has contributed to success
  • What are ways to distinguish investing skill from luck
  • How sixth-century philosopher Boethius had an accurate view of chance
  • What are ways we can benefit from good luck while protecting ourselves from bad luck


For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

Copper

Money For the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

Redacted messages to and from Elon Musk—Delaware’s Court of Chancery

Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius by Charlie Warzel—The Atlantic

Talent Versus Luck: The Role of Randomness In Success and Failure by Alessandro Pluchino, Alessio Emanuele Biondo, and Andrea Rapisarda

Susan Alexandra

Welcome to Susan Alexandra’s Dream World by Sophia Herring—Clever, Architectural Digest

The Fashion Set Can’t Get Enough of Susan Alexandra’s Colorful, Kitschy Designs by Noah Lehava—Coveteur

Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact by Roberta Sinatra et al.

What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success by Liran Einav and Leeat Yariv

Middle names make you look smarter—University of Southhampton

Admission to Selective Schools, Alphabetically by Štěpán Jurajda and Daniel Münich

It Pays to Be Herr Kaiser: Germans With Noble-Sounding Surnames More Often Work as Managers Than as Employees by Raphael Silberzahn and Eric Luis Uhlmann

The relative-age effect and career success: Evidence from corporate CEOs by Qianqian Du, Huasheng Gao, Maurice D. Levi

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Were Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? by Julie Segal—Institutional Investor

Related Episodes

323: The Economy Is Not A Machine

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us.

0:02.4

This is a personal financial on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live

0:07.6

without worrying about it.

0:09.3

I'm your host, David Stein, today's episode 408, it's titled, Is Success Due to Hard

0:14.5

Work, Talent, or Luck.

0:17.2

I recently had my iPhone fixed.

0:19.4

I replaced the back of the phone, and they actually gave me a new phone for the back, and

0:24.5

then we used the old screen.

0:26.5

I backed up the phone to iCloud, but didn't realize that the two-factor authentication

0:32.0

app I used wouldn't back up automatically to iCloud without giving its specific permission.

0:39.0

That meant I was locked out of a number of websites, including our payroll company.

0:44.2

It was a real pain, because you had to upload a photo of yourself, as well as a photo

0:48.8

ID.

0:49.8

There is still some accounts that I haven't restored yet, just because of the headache

0:54.0

of getting access again.

0:56.2

Last week, Elon Musk closed on his purchase of Twitter, after a legal battle to try to exit

1:03.4

the purchase.

1:04.5

As part of the discovery process, the Delaware's Court of Chancerey released hundreds of

1:10.0

text messages, and emails sent to and from Musk.

1:14.9

Charlie Warzel, in the Atlantic, wrote the 151-page redacted document is a rare, unvarnished

1:22.6

glimpse into the overlapping worlds of Silicon Valley, media, and politics.

1:28.6

I didn't spend much time on the document, but I did look at it, and was amused that

...

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