It's the Brian Lairer's Show on WNYC.

Good morning again, everyone.

The future of New York City has been left for dead

a number of times now in the last 50 years.

During the fiscal crisis of the 70s the crime waves of the 80s after

9-11 in 2001 and the financial crisis of 2008 and then came the pandemic of the 20-20s and a theory from a Columbia University business

school professor who's about to be our guest with a theory he framed as the Urban Doom Loop. Urban Doom loop. You've probably heard that by now.

Other cities have been caught in such loops before with decline of one sort or another

followed by many people leaving, which depleted the tax base, which of one

which depleted the tax base, which hurts city services, which cause more people

and businesses to leave, and new people and businesses not to come,

an urban doom loop.

This one, the theory goes, would be caused by remote work

becoming permanent for many people, hurting small businesses

near the half empty office towers, and maybe a commercial real estate crash

that could bring down local banks even and further send the city into a doom loop of

decline. But more recently, Dr.loop, if I can call him that, has been

singing a more optimistic tune. Not totally, but a couple of years now after he coined the

term, things are looking less doomey even if

still kind of loopy and with even the possibility that the pandemic economy and

its long tail could offer the city new opportunities for growth and renewal.

So let's hear his take at whatever level of complexity he sees at this point in 2024.

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