Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

Politics, News

4.6 • 20.6K Ratings

🗓️ 4 December 2023

⏱️ 63 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states. There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary. They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	I'm so glad that you asked where I am because I wanted to be able to do this once you got on the call.
0:08.0	Where do you think I am?
0:09.0	Are you in Austin? I am in Austin.
0:12.0	What? How did in Austin. What?
0:13.0	How did you figure?
0:14.0	How?
0:15.0	It's Lady Bird Lake.
0:16.0	Elliot went to college there.
0:17.0	Oh, it's less impressive.
0:18.0	I know the skyline of every US city.
0:21.0	If you showed the Bethesda anthropology, I would know in a heartbeat that that is my hometown. Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druke. Can
0:39.9	Nicky Haley actually win the Republican primary, that seems to be the question du jour for the
0:45.8	national political press corps, and today we're going to do our best to answer it, or at least
0:51.2	add some nuance to the conversation.
0:53.4	We love to add nuance, don't we?
0:55.0	So what precipitated this consideration of Haley's chances?
0:59.0	A cynic might say it's a bored press corps
1:01.4	in search of any glimmer of a competitive race but let's remain credulous at least for now.
1:07.0	In the month since the last Republican debate, Haley has been inching up in the national polls
1:12.0	while Desantis has been slipping.
1:14.3	Today, Desantis leads Haley by just three points nationally, 13% to 10%.
1:19.7	They are similarly close in Iowa, although they're both doing better there than
	...

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