Is luck random — or can you cultivate it? | Christian Busch
TED Talks Daily
TED
4.1 • 12.1K Ratings
🗓️ 17 March 2026
⏱️ 15 minutes
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Summary
When the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires destroyed his home and neighborhood, scientist Christian Busch encountered the opposite of serendipity: "zemblanity," or bad luck by design. Drawing on more than a decade of scientific research, he explores how people can navigate unpredictability by adopting a serendipity mindset that transforms setbacks into unexpected new beginnings. He asks: What if good luck isn't random but can actually be cultivated?
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. |
| 0:09.5 | I'm your host, Elise Hume. |
| 0:11.4 | Can you imagine if your worst day ever became the case study for your life's work? |
| 0:16.7 | On that day, I was about to submit a paper to a major conference, and like a rookie, I had left it to the last hour and was stuck in the uploading queue. |
| 0:25.6 | That's when the evacuation order came in for the LA wildfires and Pacific Pallisades where we lived. |
| 0:31.6 | I found myself outside, hosing down the house with one hand and holding the laptop with the other, |
| 0:36.6 | desperately trying |
| 0:38.3 | to get that document to upload. At that point, I thought that was my biggest problem. |
| 0:42.9 | That was Christian Bush, a researcher and management scientist who has spent his professional |
| 0:47.6 | life studying serendipity, luck, and innovation. It all felt like really bad luck. |
| 0:57.7 | But when I reflected on it, I realized it was more than that. |
| 1:01.1 | He argues that while we can't control unexpected events, |
| 1:04.3 | we can train ourselves to spot hidden opportunities in them and develop the skill and awareness to turn chaos into connection, discovery, |
| 1:09.8 | or even a door to a whole new chapter. |
| 1:12.8 | That's coming up right after a short break. |
| 1:26.1 | And now our TED Talk of the day. |
| 1:29.4 | On January 7th, 2025, our house, my wife's parents' house, and most of our neighborhood |
| 1:35.8 | burned down to the ground. On that day, I was about to submit a paper to a major management |
| 1:41.2 | conference, and like a rookie, I had left it to the last hour and was stuck in the uploading queue. |
| 1:47.2 | That's when the evacuation order came in for the LA wildfires and Pacific Pallisades where we lived. |
| 1:53.1 | I found myself outside, hosing down the house with one hand and holding the laptop with the other, |
| 1:58.9 | desperately trying to get that document to upload. |
... |
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