Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Monday, October 20th, and today we are talking about whether the whole thing is over. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, we're now a week out from the flash crash and price action has been pretty dismal.

Bitcoin bled lower... and the show notes are go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, we're now a week out from the flash crash and price action has been pretty

dismal. Bitcoin bled lower all week, culminating in a big flush to $104,000 on Friday morning.

Very weak trading on Saturday led many on Twitter to ask, is it all over?

Chris Berniske of Placeholder Ventures went viral with his assessment of the market heading

into the weekend,

tweeting, increasingly convinced last Friday's massacre broke crypto for a while,

hard to quickly develop a sustained bid after such a meltdown.

This cycle has been disappointing for most, which can paralyze action as people hope for bluer skies or former all-time highs.

It's easy to get caught up in chart minutia, but when looking at Bitcoin and Ethan Linear Monthly, it reveals we're still in the elevated range, although showing cracks, if you're thinking of taking profits. Micro Strategy is slipping, gold is sending a warning, as our credit markets, and stocks will be the last to get the message. We can always get another weak bounce, but I've taken action accordingly. Remember, it's never all or nothing when raising cash. I want to see how Bitcoin responds to 100K, but will likely get interested in the market again when I see Bitcoin at 75K or lower. This bull was different, and the next bear will be different, too. Ansom also doubled down on his bearish view posting, There's no way for me to be bullish on this market looking at the swing failure pattern on XRP, Sol and Eith Weekly charts. It reminds me of the failure pattern that Lightcoin had in 2021. When I couple this with Bitcoin trading back below its 2024 all-time high, I don't see a bull case. I see an end of momentum and price drooping over. A large 10-month distribution that is coming to an end. There is no fresh narrative. Micro Strategy tops in 2024 November. It's trading below the 200-day moving average for the first time since

2003 and acting as resistance. ETHBTC has already pumped as it does at the end of every cycle.

The only way for me to change my mind is if we get back above 112K.

One thing that's become really clear is that the crypto market is bifurcated.

Bitcoin saw a 17% drawdown from the all-time high at the beginning of the month. Definitely not

fun, but far from a sign that it's all over. However, altcoins got decimated by the flash crash,

and there seems to be very little enthusiasm to bet big on their recovery. Both Eith and Solana

lost a quarter of their value of in the same

time frame, and it's not hard to find major altcoins that fell by 30, 40 or 50%. Luke Martin posted a chart of

Altcoin market cap and commented that it, quote, perfectly illustrates why sentiment is

bearish and tired, even though Bitcoin is still above 100K. A basket of the top 50 altcoins is now

...