Is Crude Oil the Best Inflation Hedge? And Other Oil Questions

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Investing, News, Business News

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 June 2021

⏱️ 40 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Interview: Michael Kao, CEO of Akanthos Capital Management, returns to Real Vision to give his outlook on oil and energy markets. Kao highlights energy's outperformance in inflationary environments, positive roll dynamics making carrying long oil futures more attractive, and the shift in policy for OPEC+. Kao also highlights two potential feedback loops he sees for oil--one sending prices higher and the other creating issues for oil and other risk assets. Finally, Kao takes a long-term view analyzing when and how EV penetration will actually affect oil demand and the question of whether shale production will spoil the next big oil price spike. Recorded on April 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	The best stories are the ones that are constantly reinvented.
0:06.3	Like new Renault Clio E-Tec 4 Hybrid, a 145 horsepower engine, with up to 550 mile driving
0:13.2	range.
0:14.2	Enjoy its new assertive design and its free alpine trim.
0:18.0	New Renault Clio E-Tec 4 Hybrid, same love, new energy.
0:22.8	Internal source based on new Clio E-Tec is free alpine versus WLTP for consumption figures
0:28.3	real world driving results may vary.
0:50.0	My name is Michael Cal, thank you for having me, good to be with the Real Vision Guys again.
0:57.4	So I think I've been invited to talk about oil.
1:01.9	I never ran a fund trading oil.
1:05.2	I started my career basically trading the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.
1:10.2	This is back in the early 90s and was sort of Jack of all trades master of nine of you
1:18.4	along the Commodities sector.
1:20.9	But then my career shifted towards the micro when I ran my fund and I ran my fund called
1:28.5	a Campos Capital for 17 years and we were a capital structure long short fund if you
1:34.9	will.
1:35.9	We basically traded debt, equity, etc. across the board.
1:42.2	But in the last couple of years of me running my fund, we basically got invested in the
1:50.3	energy sector, which required me to get back into studying the macro very, very religiously.
1:59.6	So I guess I'm here to offer you a couple of my viewpoints about the Commodity Fundamentals
2:05.8	and where it's leading us.
2:09.1	The link between oil and inflation and the benefits of backwardation.
	...

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