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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Is China Dumping the Dollar? - And is Ray Dalio Right about Reserve Currencies?

Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle

Business, Investing

4.9308 Ratings

🗓️ 22 April 2025

⏱️ 36 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In the wake of Trump's liberation day tariffs, stocks, bonds and the US dollar collapsed all at once as investors started dumping American assets. Some commentators argued that China might be behind the selling to put the US government under pressure. In this week's podcast let's discuss if it is wise to sell US assets should investors demand a risk premium, is Ray Dalio is right about how reserve currencies change over time and what is the Mar A Lago accord?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org

Transcript

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0:00.0

In the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement, we saw US stocks, bonds and the dollar all fall at once,

0:07.6

in what many interpreted as a broad shift away from investing in America.

0:12.7

When the stock market falls and volatility explodes like it did last week, you'd expect

0:18.3

treasury yields to fall as investors rush to safety and buy treasury

0:22.6

bonds. That didn't happen this time around. Investors were instead selling treasuries

0:28.6

and their yields were spiking higher. When you see treasury yields rise like this, you'd normally

0:34.5

expect the dollar to rise, as the higher interest rate should attract

0:38.5

investors. That didn't happen this time either. As Robert Armstrong described it in the

0:44.3

F.T., the US policymakers had been unpredictable and incompetent at a moment when high deficits

0:51.4

and lingering inflation worries mean that there's no room for amateurism.

0:56.7

As the economist said, if investors are fleeing even though bond returns are up,

1:02.2

it must be because they think America has become more risky.

1:05.5

They went on to say that rumours are rife that big foreign asset managers are dumping greenbacks.

1:12.6

These wild swings in the bond market and the fall in the dollar by most accounts caused

1:17.5

Trump to announce a 90-day pause on tariffs.

1:20.6

Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.

1:25.4

They were getting yippy, you know? They were getting a little

1:28.2

bit yippy, a little bit afraid, unlike these champions. During the market chaos, we saw other

1:34.9

safe haven markets rise as money moved into German, Japanese and Swiss government bonds,

1:40.7

along with gold. The head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note that

1:47.0

the market is reassessing the structural attractiveness of the dollar as the world's global

1:52.3

reserve currency and is undergoing a process of rapid de-dollarization. Many compared the sell-off

...

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