Is Another ‘Great Recession’ on the Horizon?

KQED's Forum

KQED

News, Politics, News Commentary

4.2 • 726 Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2026

⏱️ 52 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

With the war in Iran creating major economic uncertainty, some economists are forecasting that a recession could arrive this year. The economy had already been showing signs of weakness, including layoffs in Big Tech and enduring inflation concerns, and now surging oil prices are rocking U.S. markets. How bad might an economic downturn be in 2026? And are we prepared for a recession? Guests: Talmon Joseph Smith, economics reporter, The New York Times Claudia Sahm, chief economist, New Century Advisors; her Substack is "Stay-at-Home Macro" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:42.3	Welcome to Forum. I'm Mina Kim.
0:45.0	Economists in recent days have raised their risk assessments of a recession in the next 12 months.
0:50.6	Moody's analytics raised it to near 50%, driven by the nation's weak job numbers, and noted
0:56.0	prolonged high oil prices would significantly increase that risk. Goldman Sachs raised its
1:02.0	odds to 30%, up from 25%. An oil shock has preceded nearly every economic contraction in the last
1:09.3	century, aside from the COVID pandemic,
1:11.8	and consumers are pessimistic. NerdWallet's March survey showed 65% of respondents expected a recession
1:18.5	in the next year. We look at what's driving recession risks in addition to uncertainty over the
1:24.4	war in Iran, and listeners, do you worry a recession is coming? Or are you
1:28.6	holding out hope? How are you preparing? You can tell us by calling 866-733-6786, posting on our social
1:36.9	channels or emailing us at forum at kQED.org. Starting us off is Talman Joseph Smith,
1:43.3	economics reporter at the New York Times. Tau, welcome to Forum.
1:47.0	Thank you so much for having me.
	...

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