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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Is a third of Pakistan really under water?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 10 September 2022

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Pakistan is battling a huge natural disaster as a result of heavy monsoon rains. It’s been widely reported that a third of the country is under water. But can that really be the case? Featuring the BBC’s correspondent in Pakistan Pumza Fihlani and Dr Simon Cook, a senior lecturer in Environmental Science at the University of Dundee. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineers: Graham Puddifoot & James Beard (Image: aerial photograph of flooded residential areas after heavy monsoon rains in Dera Allah Yar, Balochistan province. Credit: Getty/Fida Hussain)

Transcript

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0:00.0

Thank you for downloading the more or less podcast.

0:03.1

We are a guide to the numbers all around us in the news and in life, and I'm Tim Halford.

0:08.2

We begin the programme with some questions about a major tragedy that's been making the headlines recently.

0:14.2

Pakistan says a third of the country is underwater after catastrophic floods.

0:19.4

Pakistan's climate minister has said that an estimated one-third of the country is now underwater,

0:25.1

with the flooding impacting 33 million people on the ground.

0:29.5

Where heavy rains and floods have submerged a third of the country.

0:33.9

The scale of the devastation in Pakistan is clearly huge,

0:38.0

but a few listeners have been in touch to ask about a particular claim that's been repeated

0:42.7

over and over again. Hi more or less team, I'm sure I'm not the only person to write you

0:47.5

at this question. We've been following the Pakistan floods with great sadness.

0:52.0

They are an awful loss of life bringing unimaginable devastation to the Pakistan nation.

0:57.6

Officials say that one third of the country is now underwater.

1:01.4

This feels like a huge statistic. Could it really be the case? Thank you.

1:05.9

We also had a weather forecast to get in touch,

1:08.5

sending us a satellite image that seemed to show that about 5% of Pakistan was submerged.

1:15.0

If true, that would still be flooding on a staggering scale,

1:18.5

but nowhere near one third of the country.

1:21.8

So where do these estimates come from? Can we rely on them?

1:25.6

And what do they really tell us about the extent of the tragedy?

1:29.3

I called up Dr Simon Cook, a senior lecturer in environmental science at the University of Dundee

1:35.3

in the UK. People have been trying to understand the sheer scope of the catastrophe in Pakistan by

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