Is a Recession Bullish? (EP.275)
Animal Spirits Podcast
The Compound
4.7 • 2.1K Ratings
🗓️ 21 September 2022
⏱️ 54 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Today's animal spirits is brought to you by composer. Michael, I was looking at the different |
| 0:05.7 | symphonies in a composer today and came across one that was interesting. I think this |
| 0:08.8 | is interesting in terms of people who back tests. So it's called big tech momentum. |
| 0:12.6 | Is there a back test where if you're down to 20%, they just make you whole? Does that exist? |
| 0:17.0 | The feds supposed to do that, but they haven't decided to step in recently. So you look |
| 0:20.3 | at this and it has annualized return on there and it's almost 30% per year and this goes |
| 0:24.5 | back to like the mid 2010s. What it does is it was composer for those unfamiliar |
| 0:30.1 | Well, I'm going to explain it after I talk about this symphony here. So the way that this symphony |
| 0:34.2 | works is you pick the two tech stocks. They're all big tech stock names. There's like a pool of |
| 0:39.6 | eight or ten of them with the best 20 day cumulative return and then it switches based on which |
| 0:44.6 | tech stock is doing best. And I like the fact that on composer you can back test any of your |
| 0:50.3 | trades you want. It could be individual stocks. It could be. Is that symphony? Is that symphony called |
| 0:54.5 | Mr. Carlson's Opus? Not bad. But right now the two best tech stocks with the best 20 day returns |
| 1:00.6 | are Facebook. Yes. Which is no way. But the reason I Facebook. It's a group of ten tech stocks. |
| 1:07.5 | The reason I like to see these is because this strategy you know as great long term returns |
| 1:11.6 | is in the midst of like a 50% drawdown. And so the great part of back test is what's so funny. |
| 1:19.2 | You like how I'm cutting you off even during the Adirides? Yeah, of course. Trust me, I used to it. |
| 1:23.3 | But the great thing about these back tests is especially looking at them in real time when |
| 1:27.1 | bad stuff is happening because it's easy to look at any back test during a bull market. But I think |
| 1:31.2 | the great thing about composer is you can look at these back tests now and see what they're performing |
| 1:34.3 | in real time in a bad market. I think that can help kind of color your people make changes to |
| 1:39.6 | these kind of strategies because of what's going on now and maybe add a few more risk elements, |
... |
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