Is a Housing Crash Coming?
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 8 September 2021
⏱️ 24 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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Summary
What are the demand and supply drivers of home prices? What is the current status of those drivers and do they suggest a housing price crash is imminent, particularly given mortgage forbearance programs are ending?
Topics covered include:
- How much have home prices appreciated in the past year compared to historical rates
- What has driven the demand shock for housing
- Why U.S. houses are so much more affordable compared to earlier periods
- How big is the housing shortage in the U.S.
- What could cause home prices to crash
- How housing supply and demand drivers apply to local real estate markets
- How to purchase a home in a hot housing market
Thanks to the Modern Finance podcast and Simplify ETFs for sponsoring the episode.
For more information on this episode click here.
Show Notes
In a forgotten town by the Salton Sea, newcomers build a bohemian dream Rory Carroll—The guardian
A shock is headed for the housing market by Lance Lambert—Fortune
Housing Supply: A Growing Deficit—Freddie Mac
Related Episodes
235: What If Home Prices Always Declined
258: How Financialization Pushes Up Home Prices
317: How To Buy In A Hot Housing Market
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. This is a personal finance show on money. How it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it. |
| 0:09.0 | I'm your host, David Stein, today is episode 357. It's titled, Is a Housing Crash Coming? |
| 0:16.0 | Earlier this year, LaPrile and I drove from Palm Springs back to our home in Tucson. |
| 0:22.0 | We took a route that went by the Salton Sea, one of the largest lakes in California. |
| 0:31.0 | It's over 300 square miles. The water is tranquil, the lake is surrounded by white beaches. |
| 0:41.0 | This lake is sometimes called the accidental lake. It was formed in 1905 when the Colorado River reached a canal |
| 0:50.0 | and then for two years water poured into this desert basin. In the 1950s, the lake became a thriving tourist destination. |
| 1:00.0 | Frank Sinatra visited. There were marinas, houses were built. But in the 1970s, a series of storms destroyed many of the houses and resorts. |
| 1:11.0 | Then the drought hit and the water in the lake began drying up. Migrating birds used to stop. |
| 1:19.0 | But as the lake shrunk, the fish population died and the number of bird species has dropped 25% in the last five to ten years. |
| 1:28.0 | The town that we stopped in was really, really fascinating, was Bombay Beach. |
| 1:34.0 | There's only about 250 residents that call Bombay Beach home. Back in 2015, three artists started an annual art, music and philosophy festival in the town. |
| 1:47.0 | One weekend each year and the date is always changing. They don't advertise it. They don't sell tickets, word of mouth. |
| 1:55.0 | And it turned this town into sort of a really cool public art exhibit, fascinating combination of art and decay. |
| 2:06.0 | Mark Hegdorn said the town was dying. They're bringing in young people, fixing places up. |
| 2:12.0 | It's a shot in the arm, said Ernest Hawkins. This place used to rock. Then it went to sleep. Everyone left or got old. |
| 2:20.0 | I looked on Zillow to see what one could purchase a property in Bombay Beach. You can buy a lot for about $4,500. |
| 2:30.0 | I saw one manufactured house. It sold in 2019 for $32,000. About $25 a square foot. |
| 2:39.0 | Now Zillow estimates its worth about $52,000 or $43 a square foot. |
| 2:45.0 | Bombay Beach has got to be some of the cheapest real estate in California, which emphasizes the point that real estate is very much local. |
| 2:56.0 | Similar to when you look at a stock, there's what's known as systematic risk and non-systematic risk. |
| 3:04.0 | Non-systematic risk is very specific to the company or to a neighborhood, whereas systematic risk is inherent to the entire market. |
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