Welcome to The Lost Debata Show for Politically Ecclectics. I'm Robbie Gupta.

And in a little bit, we're going to hear from my friend Catherine Bracey all about artificial intelligence and our elections and how the two political parties are becoming defined or struggling to become defined on this issue.

But before we get there, a couple quick housekeeping items. One is I just got back from Naples, Italy, where I spent a few weeks learning to make pizza.

I actually just wrote on my Substack all about that experience and how I am a big advocate of adult camps or what I call immersive experiences.

So you can go to real Robbie Gupta.substack.com. That's Real Robbie Gupta.substack.com. That's real rabbi gopta.com and subscribe

for free and check out that article. But let me say a few words about Iran since I have not been

on this pod since that war started. I think the big piece here is people are watching oil.

So Brent crude hit $106 a barrel on March 16th. And Trump

released the largest strategic reserve in American history. Now as background, 10 to 15%

of global oil supply is sitting behind a 54 kilometer channel, the Strait of Hormuz, that isn't reopening anytime soon.

And so a lot of people are understandably focused on the oil price, but here's what the oil

price is not telling you.

The Gulf isn't just where hydrocarbons come from.

It's where the world quietly has outsourced the processing of almost everything.

22% of global urea, 24% of aluminum, a third of all helium, 45% of sulfur.

And this all starts with refined fuels because the problem is more complicated than just storage.

The crude that's replacing Gulf supply is the wrong kind. Asian refineries

were built for heavier, high sulfur Gulf crude. What they're getting instead is lighter,

cleaner, and it damages their equipment, raises operating costs, and produces less diesel and jet fuel.

So the margins are starting to collapse. In China, India, Japan, Thailand, they've all cut

refinery output between 5% and 15%. Then China recently suspended all refined product exports entirely.

Meanwhile, 125% of product takers, that's 5% of the global fleet, are sitting trapped in the

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