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Cato Podcast

Iran on the Brink: Another Middle East War in the Making?

Cato Podcast

Cato Institute

Immigration, News, News Commentary, Peace, 424708, Markets, Government, Libertarian, Policy, Politics, Cato, Defense

4.5979 Ratings

🗓️ 22 January 2026

⏱️ 31 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With aircraft carriers moving into position and calls for “new leadership” in Tehran growing louder, the risk of U.S. military action remains high despite the absence of a coherent strategy. The Cato Institute's Brandan P. Buck and Jon Hoffman argue that vague objectives, inflated threat perceptions, and regime-change fantasies threaten to pull the United States into a costly war that Americans do not want.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to the Cato podcast. I am Brandon Buck, a foreign policy research fellow here at the Cato Institute.

0:10.4

And I'm John Hoffman, also a foreign policy research fellow at Cato.

0:14.1

The recent internal crisis in Iran once again pulled the United States to the edge of another intervention into the Middle East.

0:20.9

Beginning in late December of 2025, Iranian protests over inflation and economic conditions

0:26.3

escalated into broad demonstrations against the regime, which Tehran responded to violently,

0:32.4

killing by some estimates as many as 10,000 people.

0:35.6

During the height of the crisis, as he's known to do, the president

0:38.1

took to social media and promised that, quote, help us on the way. For roughly 48 hours

0:43.3

afterward, dueling media reports sourced to anonymous officials claim that an attack was either

0:49.5

imminent or unlikely, as Israel and the Gulf states urged restraint.

0:55.3

Caution now is echoed by parts of the administration itself.

0:58.5

On the 18th, the president said that he had called off the strike,

1:01.9

but has since declared that it is, quote,

1:04.0

time to look for new leadership in Iran.

1:06.6

The crisis is not over, however, as the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group

1:10.2

is en route from East Asia to join other U.S. assets already moved into the region.

1:15.5

Today, we will discuss the crisis, how Washington reacted, and how it may still respond, as well as what these internal debates tell us about where U.S. policy toward Iran could be heading next.

1:26.5

So, John, let's just kind of open things up with a broad

1:28.9

question. How, what is or is this crisis fundamentally different from the previous one, that of the

1:34.7

12-day war? Yeah, I think this one is different in the sense that it's not just purely external

1:43.3

pressure and escalation. There's this domestic angle to it,

1:48.7

to the widespread protests, which have died down in recent days, not necessarily because anything

...

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