Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots. I'm James Hill. I'm during today by Michael Stevens of the Rousie Think Tank. Now, Michael, I mean, there's only one story that's been dominating over the weekend, which has been obviously the ongoing stalemate over in Iran in some ways. It's obviously all at wars in others. Donald Trump has given an 8

clock Eastern Day time deadline tonight in terms of when he wants he arranged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

How likely do you think that is when we're recording now at 4 o'clock on a Tuesday?

Which I think is 11 a.m. my time in the East Coast, so I've got nine hours to wait until D-Day. Well, this is the

fifth time he's provided an extension of some sort. I wouldn't rule out that there'll be a six,

but it does feel quite ominous, doesn't it? And the threats on both sides are piling up,

and there's a lot of posturing, and the Iranians are threatening to destroy all the oil

infrastructure on the Arab side of the Gulf. Iran is sort of threatening to respond as hard as it

can and then Donald Trump is saying that he wants to end Iranian civilization. So take from all

that rhetoric what you will. I mean, obviously it's, whether this is posturing or not, it's never

good to have states talking in this way about one another. I mean, obviously, whether this is posturing or not, it's never good to have states talking in this way about one another.

I mean, it reflects a general degradation in language and tone about international politics that

I noted, by the way, a Russian colonel saying yesterday that they should use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

I mean, there's this whole sort of slick in tone that, you know, it may just

be talking tough and there may be a deal. And one thing I want to say is that the reason I think

there could be a deal is that the Iranian leadership, as it exists today, six weeks in,

is still alive, which tells you that the Iranians are keeping the Iranian leadership alive for a reason,

which is to talk to them. So that is my one hope

in what is a pretty bleak day. My view is that unless there really is progress in the conversation

that we haven't seen, and Trump has hinted at some, then we're kind of in this escalation

that it's very difficult to back out now. I mean, you've probably heard the

analysis. If he backs out now, it's basically Suezmark 2. And I think it's probably true. The problem

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