Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?

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Goldman Sachs

Business

4.3 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 27 March 2026

⏱️ 20 minutes

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Summary

The Iran conflict has triggered the largest energy supply disruption in history with shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly at a standstill and regional energy infrastructure under fire. In this episode, Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil, long-time US Middle East advisor Dennis Ross, and Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, USN (ret), discuss how long this conflict could last, what’s at stake for the key players, and what it will take to restore global energy flows. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episode was recorded on March 16, 17, and 25, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	With the Iran conflict now in its fourth week, uncertainty around its duration and associated
0:10.9	disruptions to energy supplies remains high amid continued swings between de-escalatory
0:17.1	and escalatory headlines.
0:19.5	So how long could this conflict last? What's at stake for the key
0:22.7	players? And what will it take to restore global energy flows? I'm Alison Nathan and this is
0:27.9	Goldman Sachs exchanges. Each month, I speak with investors, policymakers, and academics about the most pressing market-moving
0:39.0	issues for a top of my report from Goldman Sachs research.
0:42.7	This month, I spoke with Sanon Vacil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program
0:46.9	at Chatham House, Ambassador Dennis Ross, who served as a Middle East advisor in five U.S.
0:52.8	administrations, and Vice Admiral Kevin Donagan, former commander in five U.S. administrations and Vice Admiral Kevin Donagan,
0:56.1	former commander of the U.S. Navy's fifth fleet. I started by asking Saddam what this conflict
1:01.1	is about for Iran. For Iran, this is seen to be a regime change war with objectives of overthrowing
1:09.2	or destabilizing the Islamic Republic in a significant way.
1:13.7	So the system, or what remains of it, is fighting for its very survival
1:19.1	with the aim to spread the costs of the war horizontally and as widely as possible
1:25.1	so that when off-ramps do appear, that this war is so costly for
1:31.8	everyone that Iran could perhaps obtain guarantees that it will not be repeated again in six
1:38.1	months or a year or in a few years when external powers might think that the time is right to revisit another round with the Islamic Republic.
1:49.4	So Iran is viewing this as an existential risk, right?
1:53.6	Yeah, more than a risk.
1:54.9	They were prepared for this war.
1:56.9	They knew after last summer's war, the 12-day war, that there would be a boomeround effect from
	...

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