IPO Mania
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 12 June 2026
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR
David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters.
00:00 Welcome Back Update
00:42 Why Record Early
02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup
05:00 Valuation Shockwave
08:00 IPO Pop Myth
09:38 Index Inclusion Hype
12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact
13:31 Ask Better Questions
17:16 Private To Public Shift
19:34 No Such Thing Free Money
20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well, hello and welcome to this week's Dividend |
| 0:14.2 | Cafe. I'm your host, David Bonson, and we are back to normal after a kind of different approach |
| 0:20.8 | to Dividendon Cafe last week. |
| 0:22.3 | I just want to start off by thanking everyone for the feedback I got. |
| 0:26.1 | Last week's Dividendan Cafe, we showed the video and I published the transcript of my speech |
| 0:31.0 | from the commencement address I gave at Pacifica Christian High School a few days earlier. |
| 0:36.2 | And I honestly didn't know what to expect. |
| 0:38.4 | And it just overwhelmed me the positive feedback I got. So thank you for that. |
| 0:43.3 | It was a lot of fun to do and have that circulate div cafe. And this week's is a lot of fun too. |
| 0:48.5 | But yes, it is back to the normal vein of what we actually do around here, which is investment |
| 0:53.1 | and market discussion. |
| 0:55.2 | I'm doing this on purpose. I am recording late in the day on Thursday. |
| 1:00.4 | Markets are already closed, and this is going to come out Friday, and I almost always record |
| 1:06.0 | the Friday Dividy Cafe on Friday, but I didn't want to wait till Friday this week because I really want |
| 1:12.9 | the written dividend cafe and the comments you're hearing for me right now here in the video and |
| 1:17.5 | podcast to not be tainted even a little bit by whatever is going to happen tomorrow if indeed |
| 1:26.4 | the SpaceX IPO prices and begins trading as it's supposed to. |
| 1:31.5 | There's a link in Dividy Cafe, a lot information about the fact that SpaceX is going public |
| 1:37.1 | and so forth. And this Dimmoc Cafe is not about what we think regarding SpaceX per se, |
| 1:43.1 | or Open AI per se, or Anthropic. It's about this broader |
| 1:47.6 | IPO mania going on. As you're listening to this, SpaceX has already begun trading and it's way |
... |
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