Interview: Alex Potter of Piper Sandler (05.05.20)
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
Rob Maurer
4.8 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 6 May 2020
⏱️ 89 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Video: https://youtu.be/ey3UeFJqSqY
Alex Potter, analyst at Piper Sandler, and Rob Maurer discuss Alex's $939 price target on TSLA stock, Elon Musk's tweets, institutional investors' questions, the variance in perspectives between institutional and retail investors, Tesla's progress in China, David Einhorn's short thesis, Tesla Solar/Energy, upside/downside risks, and Tesla's valuation/position in the market.
To hear more from Alex & Rob, specifically on Tesla in China, watch here: https://youtu.be/z9k3ppSk0oA
Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/teslapodcast
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast
0:00 - Introduction
1:10 - Alex's $939 TSLA price target
2:12 - Q1 earnings report reaction
7:28 - Tesla's positioning/pricing in China & new energy vehicle subsidies
13:04 - Institutional investor TSLA questions
17:35 - Risks in China
19:00 - Takeaways from Tesla's 10-Q filing, deferred revenue, regulatory credits
32:05 - Are suppliers at risk in this macro-environment?
35:35 - China's vehicle market recovery
39:57 - How much is the macro-environment weighing down TSLA stock?
42:20 - Reaction to Elon Musk's tweet about TSLA stock price being too high, from Alex and clients
43:31 - Thoughts on David Einhorn's questions about accounts receivable, and the TSLA short thesis
46:26 - Risks and downsides to Tesla's valuation
49:45 - Valuing Tesla Solar & Tesla Energy and Alex's personal experience with those business lines
55:35 - Valuing TSLA stock and missing upside
1:06:09 - Institutional investors evolving mindset and questions
1:10:05 - How can anyone compete with Tesla's lead? Why aren't analysts forecasting that lead to continue?
1:19:55 - Retail / institutional investor perspective variance
http://www.pipersandler.com/
Disclosures: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
Disclosures for equity universe of: Alex Potter
1. I or a household member has a financial interest in the securities of the following companies: none
2. I or a household member is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the following companies: none
3. I have received compensation within the past 12 months from the following companies: none
4. Piper Sandler beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of the following companies: none
5. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship or has received compensation for investment banking services from the following companies within the past 12 months: LYFT
6. Piper Sandler expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following companies in the next 3 months: none
7. Piper Sandler was a managing underwriter of a public offering of, or a dealer manager of a tender offer for, the securities of the following companies within the past 12 months: none
8. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship and has received compensation for non-investment banking securities related products or services in the past 12 months for the following companies: none
9. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship and has received compensation for non-securities services in the past 12 months for the following companies: none
10. Piper Sandler is a registered market maker for the following companies: ALSN, APTV, F, GM, LYFT, MTOR, PCAR, WBC
11. Piper Sandler will buy and sell securities on a principal basis for the following companies: 1211 HK, 175 HK, 300750 CH, CMI, NIO, NIU, TSLA, UBER
Executive producer Rish Singh
Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Nick Wood
Executive producer Fela Winkelmolen
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Bradford Ferguson
Executive producer Andre Kent
Music by Evan Schaeffer
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Hey everybody Rob Mower here and today we are joined by Alex Potter for the second time on the |
| 0:04.8 | podcast. Alex is the analyst at formerly Piper Jaffrey, now Piper Sandler as of a few months |
| 0:10.7 | ago I believe. And Alex has been covering Tesla for them for probably |
| 0:15.5 | almost a decade now getting close to that yeah I don't you it's it's I don't know |
| 0:20.6 | that's a good question I said we've been doing it a while while yeah |
| 0:26.2 | So we kind of you know went through you know your your overall thoughts on Tesla back in December |
| 0:31.8 | I should say before we get into it, so there are, you know, the normal disclosures, |
| 0:35.5 | none of this is financial advice, so make sure to check the show notes for sort of all of Piper's general |
| 0:40.4 | disclosures around Tesla, but last time we talked that was back in mid-December. |
| 0:44.0 | A lot has obviously changed since then. |
| 0:46.4 | We've had, you know, a global pandemic. |
| 0:48.5 | The stock, Tesla stock is somehow doubled in the, that sort of an environment. |
| 0:52.6 | It got cut in half. |
| 0:53.6 | Got cut in half, triple, double, yeah. |
| 0:55.6 | It's been kind of all over the place, |
| 0:56.9 | but currently about doubled from where it was |
| 0:59.2 | when we last spoke. |
| 1:00.6 | And obviously Shanghai has started to, you know, produce vehicles and the model |
| 1:05.4 | why is starting to ramp up. So a lot has changed since we last talk and I'm excited |
| 1:10.8 | to get your your most recent thoughts on Tesla. |
| 1:14.0 | So I think you just had an updated note last week after earnings and you increased |
| 1:18.0 | your price target to $939 per share. |
... |
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