Hello fellow rebel capitals hope you're well so we got big news in the Treasury market

interest rates are going higher and higher and higher so the question becomes

how high will they go?

Let's start by looking at a chart of the 10 year Treasury will use as a proxy for the long

into the curve going over to see NBC and this is pretty much what we have seen since the Fed cut rates.

The cut rates September 18th.

So if we try to zoom in here, right around there, when they cut the 10-year

Treasury yield right around 3.7, and it's gone up to 4.26.

So basically we're talking about an increase of 50, 60 basis points, and this is after the Fed cut by 50. So the conclusion is well oh my

gosh the Fed should not have cut 50 basis points because the economy is booming.

They probably shouldn't have even cut at all.

So the fact that they did cut into a booming economy

means that we are going to see a re-acceleration of inflation or consumer prices going up, let's say.

So not just that consumer prices are going up, but they're going up in a faster and faster and faster pace, just like we saw between, call it 20-20 and summer of 2022.

Who knows, the CPI could go up to 9%, 10%, 15%, we could see a repeat in the 1970s because the

Fed is so far offsides from dropping interest rates. They should have hiked interest rates.

You know, this is like the narrative that we hear now.

So let's go ahead and analyze this

to determine the probabilities of interest rates continuing to go up or maybe coming back down.

And then we can look at the long into the curb, but we can also look at Fed funds and determine

what the probabilities are the Fed continues their rate-cutting

cycle and this rate-cutting cycle will look very similar to the past few rate-cutting cycles,

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