Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar
5.0 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 13 February 2026
⏱️ 50 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Today, artificial intelligence companies are now being valued in hundreds of billions of dollars. |
| 0:05.0 | It's open AI. It's anthropic. It's all the value that DeepMind has added to Google over the past |
| 0:10.4 | years. But that force is a really important question, and it's a question that is being asked by |
| 0:16.0 | the mainstream, but also by specialists. do the economics actually work? |
| 0:24.4 | When you look at what it costs to train and run a frontier model and what you earn from it before the next model comes along and replaces it, |
| 0:28.9 | is that a profitable business? |
| 0:31.6 | Are we looking at something a bit like Uber, which lost money for 14 years |
| 0:35.8 | before turning a profit and is now handsomely valued, |
| 0:39.1 | or something that doesn't have an end in sight. Now, these questions really matter. |
| 0:44.5 | The stock markets, well, big tech had a lurching week this week and at one point more than a |
| 0:49.6 | trillion dollars was wiped off valuations. Wall Street's very linear investors were trying to digest the |
| 0:57.1 | $650 billion of capital expenditure commitments being made by Big Tech for 2026. Some of that $650 |
| 1:05.1 | billion is going towards AI infrastructure. Does any of this make sense? Are there actually |
| 1:10.7 | going to be operating margins |
| 1:11.9 | to defend and is the revenue growth going to support this? Now, as a reader's exponential view, |
| 1:19.0 | you'll know that we've been asking these questions for months, if not longer. But most recently, |
| 1:24.1 | we partnered with Epoch AI. I'm sure everybody knows Epoch, but if you don't know, |
| 1:30.2 | they are really preeminent independent research organization tracking some of the trends |
| 1:36.0 | behind AI. You've probably seen their work on scaling laws and compute trends. So we |
| 1:41.2 | worked with their team to dig into the actual margins of Frontier AI, and the results |
| 1:45.8 | are really, really interesting. So whether or not you've had a chance to read our research yet, |
| 1:50.8 | and you really should have done, this conversation will give you a really clear picture of where |
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