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Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Inside the economics of OpenAI (exclusive research)

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar

Ai, Exponential, Robots, News, Artificial Intelligence, Investing, Future, Azeem Azhar, Technology, Review, Economy, Intelligence, Science, Exponential View, Business, Tech News, Work, Economics, Gpt, Openai, It, Automation, Society, Government

5.01.1K Ratings

🗓️ 13 February 2026

⏱️ 50 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this episode, I'm joined by Jaime Sevilla, founder of Epoch AI; Hannah Petrovic from my team at Exponential View; and financial journalist Matt Robinson from AI Street. Together we investigate a fundamental question: do the economics of AI companies actually work? We analysed OpenAI's financials from public data to examine whether their revenues can sustain the staggering R&D costs of frontier models. The findings reveal a picture far more precarious than many assume; we also explore where the real infrastructure bottlenecks lie, why compute demand will dwarf energy constraints, and what the rise of long-running agentic workloads means for the entire industry.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today, artificial intelligence companies are now being valued in hundreds of billions of dollars.

0:05.0

It's open AI. It's anthropic. It's all the value that DeepMind has added to Google over the past

0:10.4

years. But that force is a really important question, and it's a question that is being asked by

0:16.0

the mainstream, but also by specialists. do the economics actually work?

0:24.4

When you look at what it costs to train and run a frontier model and what you earn from it before the next model comes along and replaces it,

0:28.9

is that a profitable business?

0:31.6

Are we looking at something a bit like Uber, which lost money for 14 years

0:35.8

before turning a profit and is now handsomely valued,

0:39.1

or something that doesn't have an end in sight. Now, these questions really matter.

0:44.5

The stock markets, well, big tech had a lurching week this week and at one point more than a

0:49.6

trillion dollars was wiped off valuations. Wall Street's very linear investors were trying to digest the

0:57.1

$650 billion of capital expenditure commitments being made by Big Tech for 2026. Some of that $650

1:05.1

billion is going towards AI infrastructure. Does any of this make sense? Are there actually

1:10.7

going to be operating margins

1:11.9

to defend and is the revenue growth going to support this? Now, as a reader's exponential view,

1:19.0

you'll know that we've been asking these questions for months, if not longer. But most recently,

1:24.1

we partnered with Epoch AI. I'm sure everybody knows Epoch, but if you don't know,

1:30.2

they are really preeminent independent research organization tracking some of the trends

1:36.0

behind AI. You've probably seen their work on scaling laws and compute trends. So we

1:41.2

worked with their team to dig into the actual margins of Frontier AI, and the results

1:45.8

are really, really interesting. So whether or not you've had a chance to read our research yet,

1:50.8

and you really should have done, this conversation will give you a really clear picture of where

...

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