Welcome back and hopefully you're all staying warm. My my house right now, as many of yours are,

covered in ice, which is my kids are home from school.

You might hear them in the background.

I've often thought that Twitter, which is my social media platform of choice, makes you twice as informed, but half as productive.

And on net that's probably a wash.

And look, I think a lot of media works just like that.

Everyone now has access to an astronomical amount of data relative to what we had even 10 years ago.

But how much of that makes us more informed versus more distracted, or more intelligent versus more biased and able to cherry pick or confirm what you already believe.

It's a lot of it.

And so obviously there is a hierarchy of information

that you consume.

It ranges from life-changing good information

to life-changing disastrous and dangerous information.

Now this has always got me thinking.

Hypothetically, theoretically, what would be the most interesting and useful information that you could get your hands on?

Many years ago I asked that question to Yale Economist Robert Schiller and he said he had this fascinating answer he said this

fascinating answer. He said the exact role of luck in successful outcomes.

That's the information that he would want to get his hands on.

I love that answer because it's impossible to get that information.

Nobody will ever have that information.

But if you did, if you did know the exact role of luck in successful outcomes, your entire worldview would change.

Who you admire in life would change.

...