Inflation vs. Recession vs. Investing Common Sense
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 8 July 2022
⏱️ 24 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The fundamental tension in the economy today, and less directly so, in markets themselves, is really simple: Is a recession coming that slows down price inflation? That question is simple to identify as the economic tension point of the moment, but it is not simple to answer.
One reason for this complexity is that some of the premises brought to the question are not to be taken for granted. And this is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe – what do we know about current economic conditions, potential economic developments, and eventual economic results? What do some think they know that could be wrong? And what is an investor to do through all of this?
I have some thoughts to share that can hopefully bring clarity to much of this, and some of those thoughts are merely clarifying, while others may be non-consensus views. Either way, convictions run deep at The Bahnsen Group, as does humility. That is another “tension” that we hold gladly.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.0 | Well, hello and welcome to another edition of the Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:17.6 | I'm excited to be with you. |
| 0:19.1 | I hope you all had a wonderful kind of shortened week after the 4th of July holiday. I really did enjoy the Independence Day edition, the Dividend Cafe last week. And I've actually been out here in East Hampton all week where we own a home and we spend a lot of time over the summer. |
| 0:39.8 | I'm with my whole family. |
| 0:41.6 | But I did struggle to come up with the topic for today's dividend cafe because I had not, |
| 0:48.7 | sometimes you struggle because you don't know what you want to write about. |
| 0:51.8 | And this was more like how do I limit what I want to write about? |
| 0:55.6 | Because there's certain elements of the current inflation conversation, |
| 0:59.8 | elements of the recession talk, investment implications of both those things, |
| 1:06.5 | and a lot of other derivatives around it that are all really on my mind this week and more so |
| 1:13.5 | because of how much reading I ended up doing this week. And what I've done and what I want to |
| 1:19.7 | talk to about today is try to synthesize a lot of this together. I really don't believe that |
| 1:26.8 | these are three, four, |
| 1:27.7 | five, six different topics. I understand that I can kind of go really narrow and granular with |
| 1:34.5 | some of them as separate and distinct from the others. But truth be told, I think there is sort of |
| 1:40.3 | a singular topic around this quote unquote tension between inflation and recession. |
| 1:49.3 | So, you know, the markets have mostly been up this week. |
| 1:52.0 | As I'm sitting here recording midday on Friday, the market's been kind of all over the place. |
| 1:58.2 | But the reason is, you know, bright and early this morning, we got the unemployment report |
| 2:02.5 | for June. |
| 2:03.7 | Futures had been up. |
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