Inflation Metrics, Yield Curve Reliability And Staying Defensive With Eric Basmajian
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 14 May 2023
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome again to a special Sunday edition of Wall Street breakfast. |
| 0:03.6 | Today we're giving you a taste of a conversation between Daniel Snyder and Eric Basmagen |
| 0:08.4 | that was had in full on the Investing |
| 0:13.2 | Experts Podcasts, one of the members of Seeking Alpha's family of |
| 0:14.2 | podcasts that you can find on Seeking Alpha, |
| 0:16.7 | or wherever you may listen to your podcasts. |
| 0:19.5 | Eric Basmagian runs an investing group on Seeking Alpha called EPB Macro Research and from the title |
| 0:27.2 | you may have guessed correctly that he covers the macro picture of the US economy how that pertains to the stock market. |
| 0:34.8 | He talks about that today. |
| 0:36.1 | He contextualizes a lot of the headlines that we've been seen around the most recent report |
| 0:41.2 | and around the way the Fed discusses interest rates and the economy and he also gets into how |
| 0:46.5 | investors should be positioned in their portfolio a lot of actionable and thoughtful insights and how it helps you best navigate |
| 0:54.7 | your place in the investing universe. You can find out more about EPB macro |
| 0:59.5 | research or Eric Bess Maatchin on Seeking Alpha and enjoy this conversation. |
| 1:04.4 | Inflation numbers came out this week. |
| 1:07.0 | We just got the report. |
| 1:08.6 | What's the initial takeaway? |
| 1:10.1 | So inflation is decelerating, right? The rate of inflation is coming down. |
| 1:16.0 | And I like to look at most of the data on a six month annualized basis. |
| 1:20.0 | It tends to be the sweet spot because when we're dealing with a fast moving economy or market year over a year can kind of take a long time to filter through the month to month stuff is a little bit too noisy so if we look at it on a six month basis it tends to be a fairly smooth representation of the trending direction which is really what we're trying to capture And inflation on a six month basis has cooled from a peak of about 10% to the 3% range now. So it's certainly come down pretty aggressively. It's not quite back at the Fed's 2% target yet. But what's interesting is if we take the total |
| 2:00.5 | CPI and we just strip out the shelter component which we know has that |
| 2:05.3 | lagged effect then inflation is about 1.2% over the last three months, three month annualized. And that metric, |
... |
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